" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

7:00 Tuesday.  The Breslin Center.  ESPN2.

Ohio State started the season very efficiently, getting out to a 9-0 start.  Included in those nine wins were a road victory over Miami of Florida and a neutral-court defeat of Notre Dame (in Indianapolis).  The Buckeyes held eight of their first nine opponents under a point per possession.

Since then, the results have been less impressive:

• A 28-point loss to West Virginia at home.
• A win by just 3 points against Iowa at home.
• A 9-point loss to Minnesota on the road.

Depth is a major issue for the Buckeyes at this point.  Junior swingman David Lighty has been out for the last five games with a foot injury that will likely sideline him until next month.  And freshman point guard Anthony Crater transferred to South Florida this week after complaining of not starting over juco transfer Jeremie Simmons.  Those developments have left Thad Matta with only six players who had been averaging 10 minutes or more prior to the Lighty injury.  And, ironically, the departure of Crater leaves Ohio State without a true point guard, as Simmons is more of a combo guard.

The issues for the Buckeyes in their two losses have been (1) shooting the ball (eFG%s of 32.8% and 41.4%) and (2) rebounding (DefReb%s of just 56.6% and 50.0%).  The load that sophomore forward Evan Turner is carrying on offense (usage rate of 28.6%) may finally be catching up with him.  He’s made just 15 of 46 FG attempts in his last three games.

In terms of Ohio State’s overall tempo-free profile, the strength, like last year, is on defense.  They rank 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.  Their stats reflect the 2-3 zone Matta prefers: they force tough shots and they don’t foul, but they also don’t create a ton of turnovers or rebound the ball well defensively.  Creating good shots has been particularly tough for Buckeye opponents this season due to the play of 6′8″ sophomore forward Dallas Lauderdale.  Lauderdale ranks 3rd nationally in block percentage, blocking 2.9 shots per game.

MSU’s approach to scoring efficiently will likely be to continue to do two things they’ve done well over their recent streak of wins: shoot the ball well from beyond the arc (where Ohio State’s opponents have taken 38.8% of their shots) and create second chances on the boards.  One significant advantage for MSU relative to last season’s match-ups between these two teams is that Ohio State probably won’t be able to use its 2-2-1 full-court press much due to its lack of depth.

On offense, Evan Turner leads the way for Ohio State.  He’s averaging 16.2 points per game and also leads the team in assists with 2.6 per game.  The only other double-digit scorer for the Buckeyes has been sophomore guard Jon Diebler, who averages 11.8 points per game on 41.8% three-point shooting.  Diebler is a streak shooter, so expect to see MSU place an emphasis on not letting him get good looks early to get on a roll.

Beyond Turner and Diebler, this team doesn’t have much offensive punch.  Freshman center B.J. Mullens is still adjusting to the college game; he’s scored a total of 14 points in his last three games, after breaking out for 19 points vs. UNC-Ashville.  Tom Izzo excels at creating defensive game plans to take away the other team’s top scorers.  And Ohio State only pulls down 30.7% of offensive rebounding opportunities, so, if MSU can force tough shots, the Buckeyes are very likely to struggle offensively.

Kenpom predicts a 70-65 MSU in a 67-possession game.  I think we’re catching this team at a good time, as the Lighty injury and Crater transfer clearly have them trying to regroup on the fly.  If MSU plays the way it has been the last two weeks, Ohio State will be still trying to regroup Wednesday morning.

P.S. The latest blog post by Ohio State walk-on Mark Titus will tell you absolutely nothing about what to expect on the court tomorrow night, but will provide you with approximately five minutes of elevator-related amusement.

Tags: ohio state

OR”How to recap a game you didn’t actually watch.”

1. Embed a graph

Offensive rebounding carries the day again.

2. Cite some statistics from the box score

• Raymar Morgan leads the way with 22 points on 13 FG attempts and 13 rebounds.  Five turnovers, though.
• Nine-for-16 three-point shooting for MSU, with Allen, Lucas, Morgan. and Summers all contributing from beyond the arc.
• Six rebounds in 18 minutes for Delvon Roe (four offensively).  He must be recovering pretty well from the ankle sprain.,
• Nine-for-29 three-point shooting for the Wildcats.  Apparently, MSU forced them into some tough looks from the perimeter.

3. Quote one of your readers

My first impressions: turnovers were the only thing keeping this close in the first half (7 to 2; 6 each in the second half). Rebounding was the big key for us - we had a ton of easy second-chance buckets. The fast break was productive as well. Raymar was an absolute beast - 22 pts on 13 shots (and two FTs), 13 boards (although he also had five turnovers). Lucas went for 17 (albeit on 14 shots and 5 FTs) and 9 assists.

Thanks, SpartanDan et al.

4. Make on obvious observation

Being one of only two teams in the conference with two wins to date–with both of those wins coming on the road–is very encouraging.

Next up: A home game against Ohio State on Tuesday night (7:00, ESPN2).

P.S. If there aren’t enough numbers for you here, check out Devin’s post on pre-conference Big Ten player efficiency ratings.

Tags: northwestern

Site News

The toils of blogging once again having worn me down physically, mentally, and spiritually, I am retreating to warmer climates tomorrow for a seven-day stay.  I do plan to blog more regularly while on vacation than I have in the past, but content intensity will likely be down through next Saturday.

The Conference Schedule

After seemingly getting hosed by the Big Ten schedule maker every season the conference utilized the 16-game format, this year’s schedule finally gives us an advantage (albeit a relatively small one), in the conference title race.  We don’t have to make the dreaded trip to Madison, and we won’t have to face our suddenly-giant-slaying in-state rivals at home.

I’d rank the schedules of the seven teams with conceivable hopes of competing for the regular season championship as follows (from most to least favorable):

• Michigan State (Michigan, at Wisconsin)
• Wisconsin (Michigan State, at Ohio State)
• Minnesota (Iowa, at Purdue)
• Ohio State (Wisconsin, at Penn State)
• Illinois (Northwestern, at Iowa)
• Michigan (Indiana, at Michigan State)
• Purdue (Minnesota, at Indiana)

(Full list is here.  But home/away designations are inverted.)

Northwestern Game Preview

7:00 Saturday.  Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, Illinois.  Big Ten Network.

Northwestern comes in with an un-Northwesternlike record of 8-3.  The losses are all against quality teams on the road: Butler, Stanford, and Penn State.  The wins are, for the most part, against patsies.  The Wildcats’ best win was a 14-point home victory over Florida State in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.

Statistically, Northwestern is much improved over last season, even accounting for schedule strength.  They rank 69th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Wildcats have held all but one opponent under a point per possession offensively.  Their strengths have been (1) forcing turnovers and (2) forcing tough shots.  The first strength is not surprising, as their defensive turnover percentage of 25.6% is only slightly higher than last year’s 24.3%.  The 1-3-1 zone continues to force opponents into bad decisions.

The sea change has come in the effective field goal % department.  That figure has plummeted from 56.8% last season to 43.7% this season.  Opponents are shooting just 39.9% from 2-point range.  One factor appears to be Northwestern’s increased depth up front.  Five players, three of whom are freshman, have block percentages of 3.0% or better.

The key, as always, against the Northwestern zone is holding on to the ball and making good passes to create good shots.  Hopefully, Allen, Lucas, and Summers can knock down some 3-pointers.  But it will also be incumbent on Goran Suton and the other frontline players to pass the ball well on the interior.  If Delvon Roe can’t play again, that’ll hurt the interior passing options somewhat.  Raymar Morgan’s increased assist totals of late are a good sign, though.

On offense, effective field goal % is also the big change.  The Wildcats still take care of the ball (TO% of 19.2%) and can’t rebound a lick (OffReb% of 28.6%).  But they’re shooting the ball a lot better this season.  Four players are taking more than two 3-pointers per game, and all four are making at least 38% of their attempts.  Senior guard Craig Moore leads the way with 35 made 3-pointers, shooting 46.7% and averaging 13.5 points/game. The MSU guards will have to defend the perimeter at least as well as they did against Minnesota, as the Wildcats have more outside shooting threats than the Gophers did.

On the interior, Northwestern’s top six shooters are all hitting at least 50.0% of their 2-point attempts.  Kevin Coble has taken the most shots inside the arc, making 51.2% of his 82 two-point attempts and averaging 14.3 points/game.  While the Wildcats have added some height inside, they haven’t added individual playmakers.  They rank 8th in the nation in the percentage of their baskets that are assisted.  MSU has to stay home in the man-to-man defense and force the Wildcat players to try to make individual plays.

The goods news is that, if MSU can force a tough shot, Northwestern is unlikely to get a second chance at scoring.  And, despite their good FG shooting percentages, they don’t shoot free throws well, making just 64.1% of their shots from the line.  In their three losses, offense has been the problem: they’ve shot the ball OK (eFG%s of 56.8/54.2/52.9), but turned the ball over (TO%s of 28.0/27.3/16.1), failed to get offensive rebounds (OffReb%s of 32.5/16.4/5.3[!]), and not found their way to the free throw line (FTRs of 13.6/27.1/9.8).

Beyond Moore, Coble, and point guard Michael Thompson (4.1 assists/game), Bill Carmody rotates six or seven other players (mostly big men) into the game on a fairly even basis.  Freshman 6′8″ forward John Shurna looks to be a versatile contributor, averaging 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game with a shooting line of .600/.379/.677.

The Wildcats continue to play at a very slow pace (61.5 possessions/game).  Izzo may shorten the bench in this one and use a smaller lineup to defend the three and focus on passing/shooting on offense, since Northwestern is unlikely to take advantage on the boards or in the low post. Historically, Izzo’s been good at finding ways to beat the 1-3-1 zone.  MSU has put up effective FG%s of 54.0, 67.1, 71.9, and 55.8 in the last four meetings with Northwestern.  Whether the Wildcats have improved enough on defense to put an end to that streak remains to be seen.

Kenpom predicts a 66-62 Wildcat win in a 64-possession game.  I’d expect the point spread will swing the other way.  Two road wins to start conference play would certainly give us a leg up on the rest of the league.

I won’t be able to see this game, so the game recap is on you guys.  Post your thoughts and analysis below.

Tags: big ten, northwestern, schedule

Brian is using some of his spare time to consider our football team’s plight.  His main point is quickly conceded, as it’s a point I’ve made repeatedly over the last three months: This is fundamentally a 7-6 football team, not a 9-4 one.  He goes on to cite the following quote from an Atlanta blog, Braves & Birds:

Mark Dantonio is Jim Tressel without the talent base. Exhibit A: punting in the first quarter on 4th and 1 from the Georgia 39. Exhibit B: an offense built around running the same guy over and over between the tackles. (At least Tressel came out of the dark ages with Troy Smith.) Exhibit C: a kicker who attempted 25 field goals this year. Exhibit D: an on-field personna that makes Ben Stein’s character in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off look like Sam Kinison. With the way Dantonio’s team approaches offense, I’m constantly reminded of the Japanese officer who said in 1944 that Japan didn’t need radar because its soldiers could see perfectly well.

In terms of the specifics cited, I’ll conceded to Exhibits A and B.  I complained about A yesterday and B earlier in the year.  But we’re missing some important context here.

Regarding A, Dantonio’s actually been fairly aggressive on fourth down this season–in several cases, even more aggressive than I would have preferred (example: going for it on 4th and 1 from the 10 against Purdue, up 7-0 at the end of the 2nd quarter).  MSU was third among the seven bowl eligible Big Ten teams in fourth-down conversion attempts during the regular season with 12.  (Bad teams tend to go for it more often because they’re usually trailing.)  And last season, MSU ranked 2nd in the entire conference in fourth-down conversion attempts with 19.  So yesterday’s conservative calls on fourth down (after the failed fake punt) are not part of a long-term pattern.

Regarding B, the offense was, in fact, on the conservative side of the ideal aggressiveness-conservatism equilibrium this season.  But that’s partly a function of the personnel available.  Last year, when Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis were around, the offense was pretty wide open, averaging 30.2 pass attempts and 33.1 points per game.  This year, those kind of weapons weren’t available, and those weapons that were available spent a lot of time banged up (Mark Dell, in particular).

From a bigger-picture perspective, the primary piece of context that’s missing is that this is only Dantonio’s second season.  Imagine a world where we did, in fact, go 7-6 this season.  That’d be two seven-win regular seasons to start Dantonio’s tenure in East Lansing.  (Let’s ignore the fact they lost all their close games last year, meaning Dantonio’s overall regular season record of 16-8 is probably pretty accurate in terms of the program’s overall performance the last two seasons.)

Those results are building off a team that won just one Big Ten game the season prior to Dantonio’s arrival.  Ironically, I think most Michigan fans would be happy with a seven-win season in Rich Rodriguez’ second season, building off a team that won six Big Ten games in Lloyd Carr’s final season.  (The departure of Michigan’s entire offense is conceded.  Of course, the 2006 MSU team lost Drew Stanton–who practically was our entire offense.)  If Dantonio had won just five games in his first season, which was a reasonable prediction, this season’s results would look even better than they already do.

(I realize I haven’t gotten to exhibits C and D yet.  Regarding C: Again, Dantonio was pretty aggressive on fourth down this season.  So a lot of field goal attempts is probably a good sign, on balance.  Regarding the persona-part of D: So what?  And I’ve already addressed the offensive-philosophy part of D.)

Brian’s concluding sentence:

At best he makes Michigan State into a Wisconsin or Iowa level program, and even that seems pretty doubtful.

There are, of course, no guarantees that any coach is going to get any college football program to a certain level, but it’s unclear what exactly Brian’s standard is for Dantonio to be judged as a success to date in terms of moving MSU into the upper echelon of the conference.  He’s won the games he’s supposed to win, despite the core of the team still being guys recruited by the previous coach for a different system.  And he’s doing a pretty good job locking up in-state talent for the future, as far as I can tell.

Wait a minute.  Boring offensive philosophy designed to avoid upsets?  No personality?  Recruiting focus on in-state talent?

Hey, that formula worked pretty well in Ann Arbor for a few years, didn’t it?

Tags: football, mark dantonio

Well, I certainly didn’t think we’d see a 6-3 score line at the half. That’s what six weeks of staring at the same statistics can do to you–make you think a particular outcome (Georgia scoring early and often, in this case) is mathematically certain.

In my defense, I did point out in the bowl preview that turnovers and penalties by the Bulldogs could give MSU an advantage.  And they did give us an edge in the first half; we were just unable to capitalize on the Georgia mistakes to build a more sizable lead.

I give great credit to the MSU defense.  Beyond forcing the two first-half turnovers, they held all three of Georgia’s big play threats in check in terms of their primary roles.  Knowshown Moreno rushed for just 68 yards on 23 carries, while the Bulldog starting wide receivers were held to one catch a piece (for 12 and 10 yards).

Ultimately, Matthew Stafford turned out to be just plain too good.  After struggling with accuracy in the first half, he threw three touchdowns in the second half.  All of them were NFL-level throws, and all were to secondary receivers (the most spectacular of them being thrown to Moreno).

On the other side of the ball, the MSU offensive line looked overmatched for much of the game.    At one point in the first half (after MSU got the ball on a fumble recovery), Georgia forced MSU into negative yardage outcomes on four of their next five plays.

Javon Ringer was held to 55 yards on 22 carries.  (It was nice to see him get a TD in his final game as a Spartan, though.)  And Georgia racked up six sacks.  Brian Hoyer was under pressure all game, and, when he did have to throw, he wasn’t terribly accurate.  The MSU receivers made some tough short catches, but could never get open for a big play downfield.

I was disappointed in the way Mark Dantonio handled the multiple opportunities to go for it on fourth down, given his track record of being aggressive in that department.  After the fake punt on the first drive failed (why not just go for it with your offense in that situation?), he seemed to overcompensate by not going for it when the situations arose again during the game.  MSU reached Georgia territory on all of its first five drives in the game, but came away with only six points.  By failing to generate more points in the first half, the second half became an uphill climb.

Anyway, it was good to see MSU compete for four quarters against a more talented opponent, given the implosions against Ohio State and Penn State.  I think this game gives the team some credibility going into next season and caps a successful season by any measure:

• Nine wins
• Road win over Michigan
• Third place finish in the conference
• New Year’s Day Bowl

All in what’s supposed to be the second year of a major rebuilding process.

Coffee Talk: Moving right along, what’s the over/under on wins for the Michigan State football team next season?

Negatives:

• A 9-3 regular season in which we won every close game would point to some regression toward the mean.
• Javon Ringer graduates, meaning the primary focus of the offense will have to shift.
• Otis Wiley graduates.  He was the key defensive player in generating positive turnover margin this season (another fabulous forced fumble today).

Positives:

• The schedule is favorable.  No second BCS-level nonconference opponent (although neither Central nor Western are pushovers).  No Ohio State.
• Brian Hoyer graduates, but the Keith Nichol era begins.  And Kirk Cousins will be a very good back-up for the next three years (assuming Nichol ends up beating him out for the starting job).
• Three of five offensive linemen return (all on the left side), along with basically the entire receiving corps.
• Eight of 11 starters return on defense, including Greg Jones and Trevor Anderson.  Plus Brett Swenson and Aaron Bates.
• A top-20 incoming recruiting class that includes nine 4-star players (two of them at running back).

Today’s result notwithstanding, it’s good to be a Spartan.  And it should be for some time to come.

Tags: capital one bowl, football, georgia

The Spartans grind out a 70-58 victory against the Gophers in a 61-possession game.  Unofficial box score.

MSU’s performance today deserves that oft-used moniker of “workmanlike.”  Outside of a brief Gopher spurt to close MSU’s lead to one point going into halftime, the Spartans played with intensity for 40 minutes, slowly building a lead that eventually reached 19 points with two minutes remaining.

And they did all the things we thought they had to do to pull this game out:

• Defended well on the perimeter: The Gophers were forced into taking 21 of their 53 shots from 3-point range.  And very few of them were good looks, as Minnesota converted just 6 of those 21 shots (28.6%).
• Allowed Minnesota to steal the ball only 6 times–accounting for just under half of MSU’s 13 turnovers (TO%=21.3%).
• Took good shots, resulting in just 5 blocked shots by the Gophers (led by Damian Johnson’s three).
• Took advantage of Minnesota’s weakness on the defensive glass, pulling down 23 of 39 offensive rebounding opportunities for a whopping offensive rebounding percentage of 59.0%.  Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton led the way with 5 offensive boards each.

From a four-factors perspective, offensive rebounding was clearly the difference:

Kalin Lucas found his jumpshot just in time for the commencement of conference play.  24 points on 9-18 FG shooting.  He scored from 3-point range, on mid-range shots, and going all the way to the basket.  This is a very, very good sign.  Just two assists, but Travis Walton picked up the slack with 5 assists (vs. just one turnover).

Outside of Lucas, the only real sources of scoring were offensive rebounding (11 points for Suton, 10 points for Morgan) and some early Chris Allen jumpshots (3-8 three-point shooting).

Morgan didn’t match-up well with Minnesota’s multiple shot-blockers, but, once again, he stayed within himself–even when his outside shot wasn’t falling.  He didn’t turn the ball over a single time and played hard for all 30 minutes he was on the floor.  I dare say he’s turned a major corner in terms of his psychological approach to the game.

I didn’t think our depth would be an advantage in this game, but Izzo extended the rotation to 12 guys (with Isaiah Dahlman getting some token minutes in front of the hometown crowd).  As a result, our starters looked fresher than their’s at the end of the game.  Delvon Roe played 5 minutes–all in the first half, I think.  I assume his ankle didn’t respond very well.

Izzo played Morgan at the 3 and 4 spots in rough equal measures, by my calculations.  Minor gripe: Can we get Marquise Gray a few more minutes?  He hasn’t played more than 12 minutes in any of the last four games.  I may be missing something, but he’s seemed pretty solid on both ends of the court.  None of the glaring mental lapses on defense and a decent low-post threat on offense.  His rebounding numbers are down a bit, though.

The bottom line today is a road victory against a ranked opponent to start conference play.  Given that two other ranked Big Ten teams failed to win their conference openers at home, that’s worthy of some sort of Youtube-based celebration.  Our friend Brian began a tradition of celebrating key wins with Muppet videos this fall.  Ever since, I’ve been trying to think of something that’s better than the Muppets.

But, of course, there is nothing in the known universe better than the Muppets.  I’ve decided, therefore, to go with the less-ingenious, but nevertheless appropriate, “Dance of Joy” from everyone’s favorite sitcom of the late 1980s, Perfect Strangers:

Hey!

Next up: On the road against Northwestern.  Saturday at 7:00 on BTN.

P.S. Speaking of our friends from Ann Arbor: Disappointing result for them this afternoon.  Tough start to conference play for Manny Harris: 3-13 from the field.  I can’t believe I fell into the trap of underestimating the Badgers going into conference play, after criticizing the national pundits for doing it last year.  In my defense, the nonconference statistical indicators weren’t there this season, the way they were a year ago.  And it remains to be seen if they can score consistently against nonporous defenses.

Tags: kalin lucas, marquise gray, minnesota, raymar morgan

• Roe questionable for MSU-Gophers
  I’ll be really surprised if he plays.
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  Well, for you guys, I guess.  From the Barn picks the Gophers, too.
• Isaiah Dahlman: big fish, big pond
  Homecoming for the former Minnesota Mr. Basketball.
• Like their Governor, Illinois Does the Unexpected
  TAFKATBTW.
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  46 of Illini’s first 47 points were off 2-point baskets.

Tags: delvon roe, isaiah dahlman