Michigan Game Preview
Posted by kj on Saturday, January 26th, 2008
1:00 Sunday. The Breslin Center. CBS. The only meeting between MSU and Michigan this season (barring a conference tournament match-up).
Before we get to the game preview, here’s some Chicken Soup for the Spartan’s Soul:
- MSU has beaten Michigan in 14 of their last 17 meetings.
- MSU has won the last 9 games played against Michigan in East Lansing.
- MSU has appeared in 9 NCAA tournaments since Michigan last made in appearance there.
OK, now to the game preview. Michigan comes in at 1-6 in the conference, 5-14 overall. Their one conference victory was on the road against Northwestern. Their strongest performance, however, was the 3-point loss to Wisconsin in Madison Tuesday night.
As bad as their record is, the Wolverines’ tempo-free stat sheet is even uglier. Let’s start with their strengths–or at least nonweaknesses:
- They don’t turn the ball over a lot (59th nationally in TO%).
- They’re decent offensive rebounders (88th in Off Reb%).
- They don’t foul a lot (19th in defensive free throw rate).
- They block some shots (31st in block %).
Now their weaknesses:
- Everything else.
On offense, they’re simply a poor shooting team. They shoot 32.5% from 3-point range, 46.3% from 2-point range, and 69.7% from the line–all pretty dismal percentages.
On defense, they haven’t yet been able to play Beilein’s 1-3-1 the way it’s supposed to be played with any consistency. They’re not creating turnovers (281st in Def TO%). Teams are passing over/through the zone (299th in assists/FGM), making 3-pointers (330th in Def 3-pt%), and gathering the shots they don’t make (310th in Def Reb%).
Manny Harris was spectacular against Wisconsin this week, but he–along with DeShaun Sims–is being asked to carry much too high a percentage of the offensive load for a freshman. Harris averages 16.4 points/game. Sims averages 13.6. No other Wolverine averages more than 6 points per game. As a result, neither player is scoring efficiently. Both rank in the bottom third of the conference in points per weighted shot (1.04 for Harris, 1.03 for Sims).
Izzo will use the perimeter depth he has to hound Harris with different players throughout the game. Sims, meanwhile, is actually more effective shooting 3-pointers than scoring in the paint. So there’s not real low-post threat for Michigan. Scoring points is going to be a difficult proposition for the Wolverines.
MSU, meanwhile, has a game against the 1-3-1 already under their belt this week. Michigan will need to create a lot of turnovers (and hold on to the ball themselves) to keep this one close because MSU is likely to score pretty efficiently when they don’t turn it over.
Kenpom predicts MSU to win by 19: 78-59. My guess is the margin of victory will be in that neighborhood, but both teams will score a little less than their predicted totals. It seems like Izzo has gone out of his way not to run up the score on Michigan when MSU has beaten them in East Lansing the last several years. Reportedly, he respects Beilein and I’d expect him to pull the starters a tad early if MSU has a big lead down the stretch. (Related: apparently West Virginia fans still respect Beilein, too. Compare and contrast with how they feel about Rich Rodriguez. Hat tip: MGoBlog, who, by the way, seems much more focused on that sport with the ice skates and the curvey sticks.)
Hopefully, I haven’t completely jinxed the Spartans with my quantitative dissing of the Maize and Blue. As I posted Tuesday night, I think Beilein is going to turn the Michigan program around in pretty short order, but I don’t see Michigan coming back from the near win at Wisconsin to keep this one close for 40 minutes, too.
The key conference match-up on Saturday’s Big Ten slate is Wisconsin at Purdue (4:00, ESPN). Kenpom predicts a 65-60 Badger win. Let’s hope the scrappy Boilermakers can eke out a few extra points and give the Badgers the loss Michigan nearly did this week.
Filed in game preview, msu basketball
witless chumon 26 Jan 2008 at 1:09 am 1“Hat tip: MGoBlog, who, by the way, seems much more focused on that sport with the ice skates and the curvey sticks.)”
He’s sorry he didn’t go all Pryor recruiting all the time tonight. Skate and curvy stick Spartans 1-0 at Yost. According to the announcer neither group of seniors had ever won in each other’s building until tonight.
Judging by the Northwestern game, I don’t see the 1-3-1 giving the Spartans with the round ball and empty circle much problem. The turnover woes seemed like the same old ones, rather than some sort of difficulty with that system. Dribbling into traps is a bad idea in any defense.
Spartalyticalon 26 Jan 2008 at 12:31 pm 2And a big hats off to the Spartan hockey team going over to AA last night and silencing all the classic UM fans who suddenly are holding hockey, diving, and gymnastics at the same level as basketball, this month.
This should be a great game. I agree that Izzo won’t run up the score, which is an entertainment shame but I respect that. I actually like Beilein and loved watching his WVU teams in the tournament. It’s unfortunate that a good guy had to go to that school of which we do not speak. But it’s good for the Big Ten, along with Smith and Lickliter signing on as well. But I digress.
I’ve seen the Weasels play twice this year, at Duke and at home against UCLA. They actually kept it competitive against Duke for a while (a while = the first few minutes). Against UCLA, I think they actually had a lead going into the break, but then came out completely lost and the Bruins finally found themselves. I can honestly say that UM actually looked good at points in the first half of that contest, but you just had a (correct) feeling watching that game that it was just a matter of time before UCLA woke up and summarily shut them down. I agree that with freshman leadership under an awkward new system, this team is struggling hard core this year. Could end up being the worst season in a long, LONG time.
Hopefully the Spartans can come out shooting like a couple of nights ago, and that Chris Allen’s groin pull isn’t that serious. An extra sniper outside never hurts, even if that 1-3-1 isn’t comfortably in place yet. Three cheers for CBS (i.e., anything non-BTN)!
Danon 26 Jan 2008 at 2:36 pm 3“The turnover woes seemed like the same old ones, rather than some sort of difficulty with that system.”
That and NW actually forces turnovers with their zone; Michigan plays a defense that’s supposed to be oriented toward forcing turnovers and still fails to do so.
I think a little too much has been made of our turnover woes; keep in mind that four of our Big Ten games have been against Minnesota (1st nationally in defensive TO rate), Northwestern (16th), and Purdue (17th). We’ve been pretty close to their averages in all of those games. The uglyfest in Iowa aside, we’ve been average on turnovers - which isn’t good, but considering how well we do at everything else it’s not disastrous either. And of our remaining 12 Big Ten games, only three are against teams significantly above average at forcing turnovers (@Purdue, Northwestern, and - gulp - @Wisconsin).