Spartans Weblog

Kalin Lucas is really, really quick.

MGoBlog ponders why Michigan and MSU bother to talk to Drew Sharp anymore.  He concisely and thoroughly analyzes Mr. Sharp’s utter incompetence. This should probably be the final word on that topic.  As Brian points out, the only reason the Free Press can possibly still be employing the man is to get angry sports fans to click on his article webpages.

The Michigan Daily says Manny Harris got the “Jordan treatment.”

The Chicago Tribune splits the conference into an upper five and a lower six.  Interestingly, the conference-only tempo-free stats do the same.  See below.

TAFKATBTW takes a look at conference-only team efficiency stats across the major conferences.  Here are the Big Ten stats:

                                     Opp.      

                     Pace    PPP     PPP      EM      

1.  Wisconsin        61.0    1.09    0.92   +0.17      

2.  Indiana          67.4    1.06    0.90   +0.16      

3.  Ohio St.         67.2    1.03    0.88   +0.15      

4.  Purdue           65.4    1.05    0.94   +0.11      

5.  Michigan St.     64.8    1.05    0.96   +0.09      

6.  Illinois         62.3    1.02    1.02    0.00      

7.  Minnesota        69.7    0.98    1.00   -0.02      

8.  Iowa             62.6    0.91    1.00   -0.09      

9.  Michigan         64.2    0.96    1.10   -0.14      

10. Penn St.         62.8    0.98    1.13   -0.15      

11. Northwestern     63.5    0.90    1.15   -0.25  

As Mr. Gasaway notes, the first thing that jumps out is Ohio State’s numbers.  Their efficiency margin is only a hair behind Wisconsin and IU, on the strength of their defensive stinginess.

Note that Wisconsin is being very Wisconsinesque, with the fewest number of possessions per game in conference play.  They’re even slower than the plodding Hawkeyes.

MSU comes in at 5th in efficiency margin.  They’re tied for third on points per possession in offense, but rank just fifth in defensive efficiency.  Per usual, turnovers are what’s holding the Spartans back from an elite performance level.  Their offensive TO% has been over 22% in 6 of 7 conference games.  And their defensive TO% hasn’t exceeded 21% in any conference game.  As a result, conference opponents have been able to attempt 29 more field goal tries than MSU has.  Based on the efficiency stats, MSU is actually fortunate to only have one conference loss at this point.

There is clearly a tier of five teams in the conference.  The top five teams on offense are the same as the top five teams on defense.  Illinois has been thoroughly mediocre.  Minnesota is struggling against more talented opposition, having played a very weak nonconference slate.  For this early in the season, the odds of getting exactly five teams into the NCAA tournament are pretty high.

(Note: I realize the tempo-free stats aren’t really pulling a rabbit out of a hat in terms of the 5-team-tier thing.  The conference standings do the same, with a big game between Ohio State’s 5-2 record and Iowa’s 3-5 record.  The stats do confirm the gap is a result of fundamental differences in performance, though, rather than a couple close wins or losses.)

Coincidentally, I also decided to take a quick look at MSU’s conference-only individual stats today to get a sense of how players have performed in recent games.  Here they are:

MSU Conference-Only Individual Stats (1/29/08)

Brief highlights/lowlights:

• He’s struggled in a few games, but Morgan is still making over 60% of his 2-point shots.
• Suton just keeps rebounding: total rebound % of 19.6%.  He also has an assist rate of 5.3/100 possessions–which is pretty darn good for a big man.
• Walton is shooting an abysmal 22.7% on 2-point shots.  He’s still passing the ball well (assist rate of 10.9 per 100 possessions) and he’s obviously been a major factor on defense, but that number simply has to go up to justify his 25.9 minutes/game.
• Lucas’ offensive numbers, meanwhile, are on the upswing.  He’s shooting 49.0% on 2-pointers, 38.9% on 3-pointers, and 93.8% from the line.  He also leads the team in taking shots; he’s attempted shots on 30.0% of the possessions he’s been on the floor for.  As he’s been more aggressive, his ball-handling has suffered a bit.  His assist/TO ratio is just 1.10.
• Gray is doing the one thing he’s always done well: rebound on the defensive end.  His defensive rebounding % is 25.0%.  Beyond that, there’s not much to get excited about–particularly in comparison to Naymick’s numbers.
• Chris Allen is taking fewer shots than he did earlier in the year, shooting on 26.0% of possessions he’s on the floor for.  And he’s scoring much more efficiently, leading the team in PPWS at 1.39.

I hope to do delve into the stats a bit more next week, when MSU doesn’t play a mid-week game.