Hoops and Scoops reviews all the scenarios to show that Ohio State has now locked up the #5 seed in the conference tournament regardless of the results of this weekends’ games. So MSU will definitely be playing the Buckeyes twice in a row–Sunday and then Friday.
TAFKATBTW has a piece up today on the topic of consistency, or the lack thereof. He finds that MSU has the second most inconsistent offense in the nation, as measured by the standard deviation of their offensive points per possession in conference games. He notes that part of what shows up as “inconsistency” is actually their improved offensive play over the last 5 games due in large part to the dramatically-reduced turnover numbers. (Note that there are now three Big Ten teams with higher turnover percentages in conference play than MSU’s.)
But the ex-Wonk also cautions:
The problem with the positive spin, however, is that turnovers don’t tell the whole story of the Michigan State offense. Note, for example, that in terms of shooting from the field, the Spartans are far and away the most inconsistent team in the Big Ten. Thus we find that, over the past couple weeks, MSU didn’t turn the ball over at home against Iowa or on the road against Wisconsin, but they didn’t make many shots, either. Until further notice, then, mark Michigan State as consistently inconsistent.
The graph in the PDF file linked below illustrates MSU’s offensive inconsistency relative to the other three Big Ten NCAA tournament locks. It shows the distribution of offensive efficiency numbers in conference games for each team ranked from highest to lowest.
MSU offensive efficiency distribution vs. IU/PUR/WIS
MSU’s three best offensive performances (home games vs. Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern) are better than any of the other three teams’ comparable performances. And their six worst offensive performances are worse than any of the other three teams’ comparable performances. (Note: I just noticed I accidentally included an extra game for Wisconsin–probably the Texas game. Since it doesn’t make a significant difference–and it’s midnight on a Friday–I’m going to leave it be.)
We can say with certainty that offensive inconsistency has badly hurt MSU’s conference regular season fortunes. Mr. Gasaway also thinks inconsistency is a bad sign for a team’s postseason hopes–a pretty reasonable interpretation.
One could reach a bit and spin it the other way, though: An inconsistent team has shown the potential to play very well and may be more dangerous to put together a run in the NCAA Tournament playing above their average performance level for the season.
OK, here’s the Coffee Talk question of the week: The four Big Ten teams definitely headed to the Big Dance may all go into the tournament with seeds in the 3-5 range. Which team has the best chance of putting together a four game run to advance to the Final Four?
Wisconsin with their methodical consistency?
Indiana with their two big-time offensive stars?
Purdue with their quickness and balance?
Or MSU with their deeper and more talented, but less consistent, playing rotation?
Have at it.
I’d say it’s between MSU and Wisconsin (leaning toward Wisconsin). Wisconsin certainly has the best chance of making the Sweet 16 (they don’t have bad games, and they should have favorable matchups in the first two rounds), but MSU has a better chance of knocking off a high seed with an absurdly good performance, assuming both get that far.
this may be my bias showing, but I think MSU has the best chance for a four game run. The reasons??
1. We’ve truly shown we can play with anyone (win over Texas, almost win over UCLA)
2. Izzo- tournament experience and ability to game prep, we all know that every team in the Big 11 knows everything we’re going to run, shouldn’t have that problem in the tourney (unless we end up playing UNC again, which a lot of mock brackets seem to suggest)
3. Despite our inconsistency, our upside is higher than others (and as we’ve seen our downside is lower). On the flip side I might rank us the second most likely (behind IU and their weird mental state right now) to lose in the first round.
as for the others–
Wisky- can only play their one style, yes they play it very well and did win at Texas but I don’t see them being able to beat four good teams in a row, some other team will catch them on a hot night or simply have too much athleticism.
IU- would have to put their Dakich-funk behind them. However even before that started, I’m not a big fan of their “first guy across half court gets to chuck up a shot” offense, if they’re making shots, that’s great, if not, they’re in trouble (and in a four game stretch, they’ll likely have one “off” game)
Purdue- a team I really like, but they haven’t been quite as sharp the past few weeks, will all the youth and lack of one “go-to” guy hurt them?? (though Hummel may turn into that guy). I see them as the 2nd team most likely to make a run, they’ll also be helped by the fact that they’re still under the radar nationally.
This is a toughie. All four teams have real weaknesses, and roughly deserve their current rankings, which make them legitimate second weekend teams, but not final four teams. I think MSU and Indiana the more talented teams with greater upsides, but Indiana looks mentally fragile and we know that’s true of MSU, as well. MSU remains really vulnerable to big physical back courts, and Morgan foul trouble. Purdue is really vulnerable to a good big man or front line because they are so small, and I think they peaked a couple weeks ago. Wisconsin is very well coached, but they’ve had much better teams than this one fizzle in March, they seem to me vulnerable to good three point shooting team, and quickness. Ultimately, I really think it depends on the draw each of these teams gets.
On the other hand, I do think the Big Ten is better than it gets credit for, and other than Indiana, all are playing much better than during the non-conference schedule, during which reputations are set. I honestly would not be surprised to see four Big Ten teams in the sweet 16, and 2 in the elite 8.
Finally, which teams are in the best frame of mind to make a run? MSU and Wisconsin, I think. they are the hungriest, with key seniors who know this is their last shot. They both have the most experience of the tournament, and they are both peaking (I say this about MSU with fingers crossed — talk to me sunday night). Indiana has DJ White, who will play as if a mission, but they just don’t seem to have as much team discipline, tend to suffer defensive breakdowns and it’s not clear to me their new coach has the team’s confidence. Purdue, I think, is just happy to be there, and I think they are also a bit tired. I think they are a year or two away from a deep run.
So, in the end, Wiscy and MSU, but predicted with much trepidation.