" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

Noon Sunday. Value City Arena. Big Ten Network.

Since MSU will play Ohio State in consecutive games, let’s hit the game preview extra hard.

The Buckeyes come in at 18-12 overall, 9-8 in conference play, and squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Following a four-game losing streak that began with a loss in Ann Arbor, they appeared to have slid nearly entirely off the bubble. But a 80-77 OT win against Purdue Tuesday night has revived their fortunes.

The Ohio State offense revolves around Jamar Butler. He averages 14.5 points and 6.0 assists per game–meaning he’s directly involved in 39%+ of the 67.5 points Ohio State averages per game.

During the four-game losing streak–in the midst of which Butler was pulled from the starting lineup against Wisconsin for undisclosed reasons–his shooting touch disappeared. He made just 8 of 33 three-point attempts (24.2%). He apparently found his scoring mojo at halftime of the Purdue game, as he scored 23 points in the second half and overtime. He finished the game having made 5 of his 6 three-point attempts.

In terms of Ohio State’s team profile on offense, they’re fairly uninteresting. They rank 5th in the league in offensive points per possession (1.01) in conference play and rank in the middle of the league in nearly all the major tempo-free statistical categories. The exception is 2-point shooting %, where the Buckeyes lead the league at 53.2%. Yet they rank only 6th in the league in the percentage of their shots taken inside the arc (61.9%).

This would seem to indicate that Ohio State continues to be too perimeter-oriented (as Hoopraker’s TD commented before the first MSU-OSU match-up). Six Buckeyes are averaging at least one 3-point attempt per game on the season, but Butler is the only one of them shooting over 34% from long range.

The stats point to a need for Michigan State to sag a bit on defense, prevent inside scoring opportunities for Koufos and Hunter, and hope for a lot of 3-point shots by non-Butler players. After a slow start to conference play, Koufos has scored 15 points or more in 5 of his last 7 games. So it does appear the Buckeyes are utilizing his inside scoring ability more consistently.

Rotating defenders on Butler to wear him down and force turnovers (he’s averaging 4.0 per game over the last 5 games) is a good idea, too. One wonders if Butler will eventually run out of gas in the closing games of the season. He’s played 40+ minutes in 12 games this season and no fewer than 35 minutes in any conference game.

Ohio State’s strength is their defense. They rank third in the league in opponents’ points per possession in conference play at 0.94. The Buckeyes employ a 2-3 zone. Their tempo-free stats indicate they play it exactly as it should be played:

• They force tough shots, ranking second in the league in conference play in opponents effective FG% at 45.2%.
• The key to the stat above is they force a lot of 3-point shots; 42.4% of their opponents’ shots are 3-pointers, second in the league. But they’re not good 3-point looks; opponents are shooting just 31.3% from 3-point range, also second in the league.
• They don’t foul, ranking first in the league in opponents’ free throw rate at 25.2%.
• The downside of the zone is they give up offensive rebounds. Their defensive rebounding % is only 66%–third lowest in the league.
• They actually do a pretty good job of creating turnovers out of the zone–ranking fifth in opponent’s turnover % at 21.1%.

The key on offense will be knocking down enough 3-pointers to keep the defense honest. The first time these two teams met, Lucas and Allen each kicked in two 3-point makes to supplement Neitzel’s three long-range makes. Taking advantage of the zone to score some second-chance baskets should help, too.

(In reading my recap of the first meeting, I note that my two gripes from that night have been addressed: The ball is almost always in Lucas’ hands with the shot clock running down now and MSU hasn’t struggled as much with in-bounds plays. I don’t recall any turnovers on in-bounds plays in recent games, and there have been a lot fewer deep passes into the backcourt to get the ball in-bounded.)

Kenpom predicts a 64-63 win for MSU. This game is a statistical toss-up. From a psychological standpoint, Seth Davis thinks Ohio State’s a “no-brainer” pick to win the game because their backs are against the wall in terms of getting an NCAA Tournament slot. He implies MSU may be complacent because they don’t have much to play for. I don’t see that as the case, though; this team has a chip on its shoulder and wants to prove it can play to its potential before postseason play arrives.

I like MSU’s chances. They’ve dramatically reduced the unforced turnovers in recent games. Against a zone defense, I think Izzo will find enough ways to score off set plays. The only big fear is a bad 3-point shooting day.

The trendlines in the graph of MSU’s game-by-game performance in conference play below indicate this team may be peaking at the right time. If they can win tomorrow’s game, it would be their best true road win of the season and could provide a tremendous boost to the team’s confidence going into one-and-done land.

On a less analytical note:

GO STATE!

Trackback URI | Comments RSS