Coffee Talk
Posted by kj on Thursday, March 27th, 2008
It’s time once again for America’s fastest-growing basketball blog sensation: Coffee Talk.
This week’s question is pretty straightforward: Now that we’ve dissected the Memphis Tiger basketball team every way I know how to, what do you think the keys are to a Spartan victory Friday night?
To spur discussion, here’s an excellent scouting report on the Tigers provided by a college basketball scout to SI.com’s Luke Winn. Key excerpts and quick takes on the implied keys for Spartan success are below.
On defense:
“The sets they run are not complicated, but that’s smart on [coach John Calipari's] part because it allows them to play off of their natural ability, and create havoc that way. A sagging man-to-man defense is what I think is best rather than a zone: You just leave too many gaps with the zone, and you don’t have set block-out responsibilities that way, so guys like [Joey] Dorsey and [Robert] Dozier will kill you on the offensive glass. And you need to limit their second-shot opportunities, or you’ll have no shot of winning.
Implied keys: Sag off their perimeter players to cut off driving lanes and try to force perimeter shots. Rebound the ball defensively.
On offense:
“I think you can score on Memphis early in transition, by throwing over the top of the press, or score on them late in the shot clock. But don’t try to score in between that. They’re a very good defensive team, especially on your first 2-3 passes in the half court, but by the sixth or seventh pass they’re not very good. They want the ball back so bad that they try to make steals at that point, and get out of position. They feel like they can afford to gamble because they have shot blockers behind them. If you drive the ball, the key is to come to a jump stop, pump-fake, and if nothing is available, kick the ball back out and start over again.
Implied key: The point guards will need to make good decisions with the ball. Push the ball when the opportunity arises, but don’t force bad shots in transition.
OK, have at it. What do you see as the keys to the game for MSU? Which players in particular need to step up? Should I wear a green, white, or athletic gray t-shirt for good luck?
Filed in coffee talk, michigan state basketball
Daveon 27 Mar 2008 at 5:08 pm 1I vote for the same color shirt you’ve been wearing. I haven’t washed my white one since the loss to Wisconsin, and I won’t until we win the title (or lose).
Kurton 27 Mar 2008 at 5:24 pm 2I have been trying to figure out what to wear myself. Having the Spartans’ future riding on my choice of apparel tomorrow is pretty stressful.
Danon 27 Mar 2008 at 6:04 pm 3Don’t forget, the hockey team plays Colorado College at the same time. Twice as much to worry about.
Think I’ll stick with the ‘07 Frozen Four T-shirt. Worked just fine on Saturday.
spartanproduceron 27 Mar 2008 at 8:29 pm 4simple question, you wear whatever you wore Saturday night (which very well may be the same thing you wore Thursday afternoon) these items can be washed between games, but changing is very dangerous come March (and quite time-consuming as I try to remember all the superstitions I’ve now got to fulfull tomorrow!!)
kjon 27 Mar 2008 at 10:01 pm 5Actually, the shirt question wasn’t a serious one. The dataset I have on this matter provides a decisive result:
1) Wore green #11 shirt for win vs. Ohio State in Indy.
2) Switched to green “Victory for MSU” shirt for loss to Wisconsin.
3) Have worn #11 shirt for the two NCAA tournament games.
It’s the #11 shirt for the distance. I blame myself for that Wisconsin loss. Maybe Neitzel would have hit the shot at the buzzer if he’d seen me sporting his number in the upper deck . . .
Kurton 27 Mar 2008 at 10:40 pm 6All I know is I’m not getting near that other green jersey I own…
Adamon 28 Mar 2008 at 2:02 am 7Okay, how about someone answers the actual question?
The keys to the game as I see them:
1. Raymar Morgan needs to play 35 minutes, and needs to not be sitting due to foul trouble EVER. He also needs to be pulling down rebounds and has to make at least one 3 point shot (it seems as if he always plays well when he makes a 3.)
2. Guard play. If Neitzel and Lucas and Allen are all making their threes, good night Memphis. If not all three, I’ll take any two of the three, and they have to be responsible for at least forty points.
3. Turnovers. They’re bad to give to a fast-break team. Don’t do it. I.E. Limit the amount of time Walton has his hands on the ball.
4. GIVE NAYMICK OPEN LOOKS AT TWELVE TO FIFTEEN FEET. The guy would have the best FG% if he shot it enough. How many times have you seen him miss that 12 foot floater? Not very many.
5. On the same token, Neitzel needs to stop trying to make layups. Have you ever seen him make one? Me either.
6. Defense. I don’t know how, or what kind, but I know it’s important.
I’m not going to say too much about Memphis, because I think if they lose they’ll basically have to beat themselves, but I also think that we can be the better team and send them home. We’re in the final 12 at the moment, and by the time our game gets over we’ll either be in the Elite 8 or we’ll be the last team eliminated before that. So, no matter how it shakes out we’ll at least have been in the final nine.
My prediction (sorry, I’m not kenpom): If MSU loses, it’ll be by five points or less.
That’s all.
GO GREEN!
wifeofaspartanon 28 Mar 2008 at 9:42 am 8defense. Memphis won’t be surprised by MSU knowing their plays (as Temple was, i loved the comment from their 7footer,”they even called out the name of our plays as we were getting into the play” in one of the Philly papers).
Hopefully, they will be surprised by our defense as a team! Huge key is CDR, other than Morgan (whose defensive efforts have been hugely affected by his foul troubles), i’m not sure who matches up well with him.
If Walton plays some tough minutes on CDR with the 6 eyes help, that will be impressive given the height difference.
Grey has the size and ability but probably not the feet even if his knee wasn’t hurt. Even with a brace, his lateral movement has to be affected. Might be a huge break-out defensively for Summers, if so would make a big difference in 40 minutes of good, strong defense.
Offensively we need to be
solid and patient yet still run IF the opportunity is there.
Their backcourt is taller so we need clean looks and not shoot through the defender type shots.
Ohio State did us a
big favor with their press. Former Izzo teams made teams pay dearly for pressing us (none better than in the National title game against FL), hope this team can do well and avoid turnovers. They did much better the 2nd game against the press.
Memphis has a lot of experience with the two recent elite eights yet also the fear of here we go again if they are truly in danger of losing. They haven’t had to win many close games however we have lost leads late in the game so can’t really say we are better at winning close games this season. For some reason i think Memphis wins the intangibles except for the seeding-created expectations.
Watch they will shoot a season-high free throw percentage though hopefully not as good as ours. Hope the free throws are somewhat even and limited in terms of game flow.
Go State! We can win this game as a team and with defense.
Nate in Chicagoon 28 Mar 2008 at 9:51 am 9I’ve got my Ipod loaded up with MSU fight songs and chants, got my lucky Neitzel jersey on, I’ll be holding down the fort in East Lansing west (Gin Mill) this evening, LETS GO GREEN!
TMadison25on 28 Mar 2008 at 10:27 am 10Anyone see the article on Gray’s knee?
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/.....id=3316300
I know he hasn’t been playing too much in this tournament (6 combined minutes in two games), but I think we need him healthy this game. Hopefully he can still contribute in a small amount of playing time and this isn’t anything serious.