Back in March, when Witless Chum and Hubert suggested I spend some of the offseason looking at MSU’s historical tempo-free statistical trends, it seemed like a great idea. Since then, though, I’ve realized:
(1) It’s a lot of work compared to other kids of blog posts.
and
(2) It doesn’t seem to generate a lot of discussion.
I will say it’s provided some good historical context that I think will be helpful in analyzing statistical results during the upcoming season.
Anyway, my plan is to look at the last component of offensive efficiency today (free throw rate), do a wrap-up post on overall offensive efficiency, and maybe give a quick look at overall defensive efficiency–but forego detailed analysis of historical defensive tendencies until (at least) next offseason.
Here’s the data on free throw scoring, starting with the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts:
- This figure measures how often a team gets to the line relative to its scoring opportunities.
- MSU’s peak year was 2002-03, when five players (Anderson, Davis, Torbert, Hill, and Anagonye) shot at least 2.5 free throw per game.
- The next best year 2006-07, when five players (Netizel, Morgan, Suton, Walton, Gray) shot at least 2.0 free throws per game.
- This figure plummeted from 2006-07 to 2007-08, as only three players (Morgan, Lucas, Neitzel) shot at least 2.0 free throws per game this past season.
- Oddly, this measure actually declined over the course of Paul Davis’ career (the one true low post threat Izzo has had for multiple years).
- Free throw percentage of course measures the team’s efficiency in converting free throw attempts into points.
- The 2001-02 team and then the three teams from 2003-04 to 2005-06 performed extremelyy well in this area, reflecting the free throw shooting prowess of Chris Hill, Kelvin Torbert, Maurice Ager, Alan Anderson, Shannon Brown, and Paul Davis.
- This has been a strength of Izzo teams. In the last 10 years, Michigan State has ranked in the top 100 nationally in free throw percentage ever year–and in the top 50 in eight of those ten years.
- The percentage increased slightly in 2007-08 after a substantial decline in 2006-07. Goran Suton showed the biggest improvement, going from 64.6% to 77.6%.
- Free throw rate puts the first two items together, measuring the number of points a team creates through free throws relative to its scoring opportunities.
- This figure peaked in 2002-03, despite the team’s free throw shooting percentage being a little lower than in other years in that period.
- The early Final Four teams were pretty average in scoring from the free throw line, with the national championship team being the best in that era.
- This statistic has declined from the peak in 2002-03, with a big drop from 2006-07 to 2007-08. This was a function of the decline in FT attempts, rather than FT shooting percentage. MSU ranked in the top 100 nationally in free throw rate from 2003-04 to 2006-07, before dropping to 198th this past season. (The kenpom data only goes back five years. Statsheet instead measures the percentage of a team’s points scored from the free throw line; that stat has MSU as average to below average from 1996-97 to 2001-02.)
As was the case with field goal shooting, the later Izzo teams have generally been better at scoring from the free throw line than the earlier teams were–up until 2007-08 at least. My subjective judgement is that the low free throw rate this past season reflected the lack of team identity on offense. Players didn’t have the necessary freedom/confidence to attack the basket. Hopefully that changes this season, with Lucas being the clear point guard on the floor and Morgan regaining his confidence going to the basket.
“The next best year 2006-07, when five players (Netizel, Morgan, Suton, Walton, Gray) shot at least 2.0 free throws per game.”
I’d think this was an artifact of the fact that these guys were on the floor a lot more due to the short bench.
As to the series, I find it informative and interesting and definitely a good idea suggested by great minds, but I don’t tend to have much to say on it. Partly because I’m still not as familiar with tempo-free stats as I might be and partly because I didn’t follow basketball as closely as I do now through most of the period being discussed.
Yeah, the free throws/game for individual players are not tempo-free numbers and therefore inherently flawed.
Still, it was a step up from the 2005-06 season (also a bad depth year) when only three guys (Davis, Ager, Brown) averaged 2 FT attempts per game (albeit they all averaged 4+ attempts).
This is a good illustration of how the depth of analysis this series requires exceeds the time I have to devote to it.
Well I love and appreciate the temp-free analysis series, so I hope it keeps coming around.
I always regarded MSU’s free throw shooting, along with rebounding and defensive commitment and strength and conditioning, as one of the things that showed how Izzo was just more of a better all around coach and program manager than much of the rest of the competition. He doesn’t stand for drop offs in those areas, and it shows when year it and year out MSU is mostly on the topside of those stats.
If anything, seems that the stats series shows that some of those qualities aren’t being used enough. MSU needs more FT and 3FG opportunities offensively. As you mentioned, the lack of a drive-and-dish creator more than likely decreased those opportunities. This upcoming season, three players (Lucas, Allen, Summers by reputation) come with the ability to create for themselves and drive to the basket, one player (Morgan) could re-commit to playing inside as a part-time 4, and another player (Walton) can drive to create for others if he can get his confidence back. This should translate to many more FT and more open 3FG opportunities.
I’ve just talked myself into a Final Four appearance while writing this. So giddy for the season to start.
I think the lack of comments is due to the fact that the data answers more questions than your other blogs. I mean, there is something definitive about the data that is hard to argue with. I have found them very interesting even as I was not sure what to say about them. All in all, though, these data driven posts to show some real patterns across the last decade– for example that Izzo teams have never been particularly reliant on the 3 point shot– and they help to explain how the 2005 team got the final four, and why, say, the 2004 and 2006 teams were such a bust in March.
I also agree with the comments above. The recent teams have had too many static jump shooters, the primary reason they have shot so few free throws. Lucas and Morgan should really change that. Each should be shooting 6-10 foul shots every night.
I won’t chalk these up as a complete waste of time then–although two of the three guys who like the posts are the guys who recommended the topic in the first place.
I’ll try to pull everything to together in a wrap-up post on the offense in the next couple weeks.
Just wanted to say thanks for the blog. I have just recently found your blog online and its great to get Spartan basketball news in the off season. I mean who doesnt want to see free-throw stats, I know I do, atleast during the offseason. Soon I will packing up to move to Denver, and your blog may be the only thing keeping me from becoming a fan of a Colorado team(that and the fact that there are no teams worth cheerin for in Colorado, and posablly the whiole Big XII)
I like these posts too – it’s just that there’s usually not much to say about them that you haven’t already said.
I agree with Hubert on why there is not much discussion on these posts. Hard facts don’t generate nearly the conversation as an opinion matters do. That said, I also agree with Josh S. Its the offseason and there is nothing out there about basketball besides rivals sketchy coverage of the summer league played at Everett High that wrapped up a few weeks ago. These stats are a great way to reflect on the amazing 13 years that Izzo has strung together. Thanks for the hard work, its much appreciated from my end.
[...] Free Throw Shooting: Over the last 12 years, the team’s free throw shooting percentage has generally increased over time–becoming a major team strength from 2001-02 to 2005-06. Because of a decline in the rate the team gets to the line relative to field goal attempts, their net free throw rate (FTM/FGA) has declined somewhat over the last five years. [...]