Must . . . not . . . get . . . emotionally . . . invested . . . in . . . MSU . . . football . . . team.
We’re now just 25 days from Midnight Madness (Friday, October 17; haven’t seen any details yet). Let’s chat about how this basketball team will fit together.
We’ve talked about how depth appears to be a key to the success of Izzo-coached teams. The 2008-09 team has the potential to utilize a deeper rotation than the teams of the last several years, with 13 scholarship players who could conceivably contribute in the right situation. But those 13 players are pretty clearly divided into two groups–with seven guys who will almost certainly be major contributors and six guys whose roles aren’t very well defined.
Here are the seven players who, assuming they stay healthy, are very likely to play at least 20 minutes per game:
- Kalin Lucas
- Travis Walton
- Chris Allen
- Durrell Summers
- Raymar Morgan
- Delvon Roe
- Goran Suton
That’s a pretty versatile group, with five guys who can play the three perimeter spots and three guys that can play the two “big” spots. Hopefully, though, the regular playing rotation will be at least eight players deep, if not nine or ten deep.
Here’s a rundown of the six candidates to fill those additional spots in the playing rotation (in alphabetical order):
Isaiah Dahlman: Given his lack of playing time last season, and the talk of a redshirt this year (which I now assume won’t be happening), it’s hard to see Dahlman getting major minutes. But if Izzo intends to play a smaller lineup much of the time, they could need an extra wing player at some point.
Marquise Gray: As a fifth-year senior with loads of natural ability, Gray would be an obvious choice to get significant minutes. But there are two major questions that continue to haunt him: Can he stay healthy? And can he avoid the major mental lapses that led to his minutes getting severely reduced at the end of last season?
Draymond Green: I don’t know a ton about Green, but the loss of weight over the offseason reported by Eric Lacy yesterday indicates he could be a candidate to play a similar role to Morgan–using a combination of mid-range shooting and rebounding ability to shift between the 3 and 4 spots.
Tom Herzog: It’s hard to see Herzog getting major minutes on a consistent basis, particularly with Izzo’s statements about playing smaller and faster. But Herzog has added weight over the offseason. At some point, he may become a potential fill-in for Suton in the middle.
Idong Ibok: Ditto. Except Ibok has probably developed as much as he’s going to as a college basketball player.
Korie Lucious: Having two experienced point guards in Lucas and Walton would, on first analysis, seem to preclude Lucious from playing a major role this year. But (1) we know Izzo isn’t opposed to multiple point-guard line-ups (much to my chagrin at times) and (2) Lucious is reportedly a pure outside shooter, and this team may need more shooters on the floor in the absence of Drew Neitzel.
So here’s your Coffee Talk question: Who do you think becomes the #8 guy in the playing rotation? How many players deep do you expect the playing rotation to go? Vote and comment below.
Lots of football talk! lol… It’s all enjoyable stuff… But this Spartan is ready for some substantial basketball.
I feel as if Dahlman will have the 8th most minutes. He seems most likely to fit in with the smaller lineup versatility that Izzo is looking for. Another perimeter threat could work well with Roe/Morgan/Suton holding down the paint.
There are 200 minutes a game. assuming the 7 top guys play an average of 25 minutes each, that leaves about 50 minutes to distribute.
Given that MSU big men tend to get into foul trouble, particularly Morgan, that Izzo will be quick to bench Roe, a freshman, and the nature of big ten play, I think Grey will end up playing 10-15 minutes a game, as the eight player. A lot depends on how good Herzog is, but I think Herzog will basically only play at the 5, while Grey will play at both the 5 and the 4, and so get more minutes.
I’m really curious about the wing players, but there are so many of them, unless a Green or a Dalhman really emerges, I think they share the same minutes.
But you look at this line up and you really have to wonder how Izzo keeps everyone happy. You have to go back to the 2004-05 team for anything like this kind of depth.
I vote for the Zog. You can’t, after all, teach being 7’1″ and he looked like he’s got a bit of touch around the bucket in very limited action.
Gray will be 1a., though, because of his experience and the reasons hubert points out. Someone has to spell Suton and these guys will be doing it.
I wonder if Izzo might consider a redshirt of Lucious or Green?
My vote goes to Gray, provided he’s healthy. I’d like to see him finally at least come close to living up to his potential. I’d settle for solid defense and rebounding, fewer turnovers, and the ability to hit a shot other than a dunk. Like maybe a layup, or a 5 foot jumper. If he could provide quality minutes we have the potential to be both deep and scary good even with our second stringers in. Plus we only have two true bigs in the top 7 so, given foul trouble, etc. I’d expect our 8th guy to have some size. Gray is the best of our options there provided he is healthy.
The one question will be how Walton responds to is sub-par year. If he continues to turn the ball over regularly, and/or can’t find his shooting stroke, then I can’t see Izzo playing him all that much. In that case Lucious might be the 8th guy if his shooting touch is as good as advertized, since he could come in for either Allen or Lucas.
I think it’s Gray by default, for the reasons Mark states above. Oh, AJ Granger, where art thou…
I’m also with Mark that Walton better watch out. I don’t think Walton over Lucious is set in stone. Walton is a team guy and a defensive presence, but if he can’t get his head back together and can’t contribute consistenly to the offense, then Lucious may be the guy to be able to do that.
Gotta be Quis, unless Herzog took some major steps in the off season.
Good problem to have.
Based on the poll, Gray’s the consensus pick at this point, with Green as the darkhorse. Hopefully, both guys are contributors, as they’d provide some athleticism at the “big” spots for a team expected to play at a faster pace.
Assuming Lucious’ shooting ability gets him a few minutes per game, that’d be a 10-man rotation, which would be great from an intensity standpoint.
Herzog should be an asset against bigger teams or if Suton runs into foul trouble. I remain skeptical about Dahlman.
I don’t buy Walton losing his role. Izzo was more than happy to play Tim Bograkos, as I’m sure you all remember. If he still plays defense like he has, he’ll still play and probably start, or so I predict.
When we have a PG that scores like Kalin Lucas, I don’t have a problem with that at all.
I think Walton has to be at least competent as a mid-range shooter (as he was two years sgo). The team didn’t have as many other options when Bograkos was getting PT.
As much as Izzo may love Walton’s intensity, his desire to win a championship will trump it if push comes to shove.
I think the key for Walton is to avoid the turnovers. For a point guard, he has been a veritable turnover machine. I haven’t gone back and looked up Timmy B’s tempo free turnover stats, but I’d be surprised if he was as bad as Walton. Given that Bograkos was a walk-on to the team, that’s quite an indictment of Walton’s ability to hang onto the ball.
I don’t think we need Walton to score much this year, as long as he hangs onto the ball. We have scoring potential, at least in our starting lineup, everywhere else. However, we cannot afford a point guard who turns the ball over at the rate he does, if we have another option that can at least play decent D but will hang onto the ball much better. I agree that if no-one else can step it up on D he will get minutes – Izzo will not accept sub-par defense. I like Walton’s intensity and really want him to play well this year, but turnovers, especially on the perimeter (which are more likely to turn into easy baskets for the other team), are killers.