Joe Rexrode is more sold on the possibility of a second BCS slot for the Big Ten, even with Penn State out of the national championship picture:
Now let’s look at the other (more likely) scenario: an MSU loss in Happy Valley. That would leave the Spartans at 9-3 overall, 6-2 in the league. If Ohio State wins its final two, that would virtually guarantee that Ohio State gets a second BCS bid for the Big Ten. If you don’t believe me, check the ACC, Big East and Pac-10. At-large candidates are lacking. OSU sells tickets and TV ads. It’s a cinch. And that would put MSU in the Capital One Bowl, likely against LSU or Georgia.
Regardless, it appears the Outback Bowl is the worst case scenario. Rexrode notes that technically Minnesota, Northwestern, or Iowa could get picked ahead of us–despite being lower in the Big Ten standings–but I really don’t see them passing up a 9-3 MSU team with a fan base like ours.
A good bowl to avoid would be the Alamo Bowl against Oklahoma, Okie State, Mizzou, Texas, or Texas Tech, depending on how the OU-Tech game and the Big 12 Championship turn out. That could be an ugly experience for Northwestern or Minnesota.
Seems like we’re reasonably safe in avoiding that, Omar (though if things break a certain way, we could end up in the Fiesta Bowl playing an even better team from that group). I definitely don’t see Northwestern or Iowa jumping us since we beat them and Iowa will definitely have at least one more loss than we do (Northwestern will have one more in conference but went unbeaten against a weak non-conference slate), probably not Minnesota either since their schedule was so terrible (and they just got blown out by Michigan). As long as Oregon State loses once, the Big Ten will very likely get two BCS bids (we need USC to take the Pac-10 auto-bid, but Oregon State currently has the inside track due to the head-to-head win), which would even allow us to get jumped once and still play in Tampa.
Where I think we’ll go:
- Beat PSU, OSU loses once: Rose Bowl (this is automatic)
- Beat PSU, OSU wins out: Capital One Bowl if Oregon State wins out, BCS at-large (probably the Fiesta or Orange) if Oregon State loses one
- Lose to PSU: Capital One Bowl if Oregon State loses one, Outback if Oregon State wins out