Rankings Update
- MSU slid a bit to #19/22 in the polls. Apparently, the voters weren’t impressed by the 118 points against Alcorn State.
- We’re up to #28 in the Sagarin ratings, but still down at #39 under the Kenpom version.
The Return of Goran Draws Nigh
Goran Suton practiced today, and his knee was reportedly pain-free. There’s a chance he could see limited action Wednesday night and/or Saturday against Texas. Obviously, he’s not going to be a major asset if he does play in those games. But his return this week would be a great sign in terms of getting back to a high level of performance before Big Ten play starts.
I’m still a little concerned about how mysterious this injury seems to be, though:
“I’m not sure of everything (doctors) did in (the knee during surgery), but they did something right,” said Suton, who was expected to also practice in Monday’s afternoon session.
Monday Night Links
- Texas Basketball Report, v 2.1
Looking ahead to Saturday, here’s a status report on this year’s Texas team from Burnt Orange Nation. A.J. Abrams has apparently been moved back to off guard, with positive results. - Who is Laval Lucas-Perry?
UMHoops on Michigan’s soon-to-be combo guard off the bench. - Michigan State Spartans season recap
Adam Rittenberg: “Labeled as the Big Ten’s surprise team before the season, Michigan State lived up to its billing and broke down a few barriers in the process.”
Stat of the Day
Despite Drew Neitzel graduating and the three-point line getting moved back a foot, MSU is taking 1.8 more 3-point shots per game this season than they did last season. And they’re shooting a slightly higher percentage (37.7% vs. 37.1%).
Chris Allen (43.9%) and Durrell Summers (52.6%) are leading the way. Allen has already made half as many 3-pointers as he did all last season (18/36), and Summers is only one off last season’s total 10/11.
Michigan State is still far from being Butler–we still rank only 314th in the nation (and last among Big Ten teams) in 3ptA/FGA–but this is a good early sign that the offense might be a bit more diversified than it was last season.
We probably shouldn’t be impressed with 118 against Alcorn State either. I don’t like these types of games – blowouts from the get go – because things come too easy for the players. It’s easy to play with confidence when you are up 20 with no sign of fight. You almost get a little thrown off the next game against real competition because you almost forget how hard it actually is to function in a competitive game.
It’s funny, I don’t think you are the “surprise team” if everyone had pointed you out as the “surprise team”. I guess maybe in the national view. Oh well, I’m just happy the kids made it happen.
DP99 raises a good point about scheduling. I’d love to see someone with more statistical skills than I take a look at some questions related to optimal scheduling. For instance, presuming that MSU will be an NCAA tournament team next year (usually a safe assumption these days) what sorts of opponents would provide the biggest payoff in terms of RPI boost? Clearly the answer isn’t Alcorn State, because MSU would have beaten a better opponent too. But whereabouts is most useful opponent–that is, the one that MSU will still beat, but that will also provide the biggest RPI boost?
Tom Izzo should be armed with this information!
Cheers–Nick
Speaking of Drew Neitzel, some good news from Deutschland. I wrote a while back that the team Drew plays for recently acquired Will Blaylock, who immediately moved into the starting rotation. Drew’s minutes dipped significantly, but he got a chance a few weeks ago and took advantage of it, scoring 23 points. He is still sixth or seventh man, but his playing time is back in the 20 minutes range. I was a bit nervous when his playing time dipped below 10 minutes, but that seems to be history, hopefully.
DP99/Nick, I agree about scheduling. I do think Izzo’s made an effort to reduce the number of cupcake games in recent years and add a few more mid-level opponents (Bradley, Oakland, IPFW). Idaho, Alcorn State, and The Citadel are the only three absolute cupcakes on the slate this season.
http://www.spartansweblog.com/2008/09/04/so-exactly-how-tough-is-msus-nonconference-schedule/
Mblemieux, Thanks for the update. Glad to hear Drew’s getting more PT.
I would be shocked if Izzo did not consider RPI rewards/punishments when doing the scheduling. As kj pointed out, Izzo has been starting to play good mid-majors each year, even willing to go to their home court (or nearby in BYU’s case). The Bradley game was a true away game, as was the IPFW game(not sure that falls into the same category as the other two though).
Those mid-majors have a hard time finding teams to play them in the comfort of the major schools home arena, let alone on the road. When a major school visits a mid-major that school goes nuts, Peoria’s newspapers dubbed last years game against Bradley the biggest home game in the history of that school.
I think those kind of wins can go a long way come tourney time if a team is on the bubble. Hopefully that will not be the case this year.