MSU-Kansas Thoughts
To pay my blogging penance, I watched the full game on videotape this afternoon. Here’s the rest of the game recap:
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the current nine-game winning streak is how everyone in the playing rotation seems to be finding their respective roles. Eleven players played significant minutes yesterday, and all of them contributed positively in at least a small way.
- Kalin Lucas: 22 points on 11 FG attempts. Lucas remains sizzling hot: 3-4 on three-pointers. Discussion question: Why do Lucas’ assists go down so dramatically (just one yesterday) when his scoring goes up?
- Travis Walton: Found his shooting stroke again, scoring 11 points on 5-8 shooting. Could be even more of a force on defense if he’d stop using his hands so much and picking up ticky-tack fouls when he’s in good defensive position. Helped force Sherron Collins into making 8 turnovers (six in Kansas’ 18-point first half).
- Raymar Morgan: A workmanlike 13 points and 8 rebounds. More so than any other MSU player, Morgan has found the sweetspot of his role in the offense.
- Delvon Roe: 5 points and 5 rebounds in 17 minutes. How about that catch on the fast break under the basket late in the second half?
- Goran Suton: Despite issues caused by sushi and/or calamari, contributed 6 points and 7 rebounds in 22 minutes. Isn’t it nice to have a big guy who can consistently knock down the perimeter shot again?
- Chris Allen: He’s struggling with his shot right now, as he missed his first four 3-point attempts. But he bounced back to hit his final attempt, which effectively ended the game. Allen didn’t force things much, playing within the offense and leading the team with 3 assists. Noticed a couple defensive lapses that led to open 3-point looks for Kansas, though. (One advantage of watching a game on tape: the rewind button.)
- Idong Ibok: Played 14 minutes of solid defense, flustering Cole Aldrich in the first half and taking the Jayhawks out of their comfort zone. Two blocked shots. And his ball-handing was solid; he finished with two assists.
- Durrell Summers: 4 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes. Nice finish on an alley-oop from Allen.
- Korie Lucious: 5 points and 2 assists in 11 minutes. Committed two turnovers, but one was in the last minute with the shot clock running down. Is it a coincidence that Walton’s offensive touch returned with Lucious getting the bulk of the back-up point guard minutes? Giving Lucious 10-12 minutes puts a squeeze on minutes for perimeter players, with Morgan playing more at the 3 than at the 4 now, but I think it’s the way to go.
- Marquise Gray: 4 rebounds in 9 minutes. He’s disappeared on offense, but he should get 10 to 15 minutes if continues to rebound and play decent defense.
- Draymond Green: 3 points and 2 rebounds in 7 minutes. Nice jumpshot with the shot clock running down in the second half.
It’s nice to come out on top in an Ed Hightower special, with a total of 55 fouls called. MSU shot 26 for 35 from the free throw line (74.3%), while Kansas shot just 17 of 28 (60.7%).
Kansas couldn’t find any scoring outside of Aldrich (14) and Collins (25). The rest of the Jayhawks combined for just 23 points. MSU played solid, straight-up man-to-man defense. And they limited Kansas’ second-chance points, holding a very good offensive rebounding team to just 7 offensive rebounds in 36 opportunities (DefReb%=80.3%).
With three road games in our first four Big Ten games, this win provided a good chance to win a game on our home court, feeding off the energy of the crowd. And it was a great showcase game for the program on national TV against one of the all-time elite basketball programs in the country.
Next up: At Penn State Wednesday night. Eat your dinner early. It’s a 6:30 tip-off on BTN.
Purdue-Wisconsin Thoughts
The two teams who finished in the top two spots in last year’s Big Ten standings clashed in West Lafayette this afternoon. The Boilermakers earned a 65-52 win in a 55-possession game, beating Wisconsin in all four statistical aspects of the game:
From a short-term perspective, this leaves MSU as the only Big Ten team undefeated in conference play. So that’s a good thing. From a longer-term perspective, though, there are reasons to think both Purdue and Wisconsin are still in positions to be serious threats in the conference title race.
With Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer back on the court, Purdue looked every bit the team that was picked as the preseason conference favorite. They played their brand of lock-down defense and unselfish offense for 40 minutes. And Jujuan Johnson gave them the inside presence they need, scoring 20 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Purdue has dug itself an early hole in the conference race, but if they remain at full health, this game proves they have the ability to dig themselves out of it.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, continued to have problems scoring points against quality teams. The best statistical indicator of the Badgers’ struggle to create good offensive situations is that they shot only 6 free throws. Early in the game, Wisconsin regularly tried to run its swing offense, but Purdue was too disciplined to get beat by it. With the shot clock running down, this Wisconsin team doesn’t have the same kind of playmaker past squads have had to manufacture a good shot. The two potential go-to guys, Trevon Hughes and Marcus Landry, combined to shoot just 6 of 26 from the field today.
Nevertheless, there aren’t that many elite defensive teams in the Big Ten this year: Purdue, Illinois, and (maybe) MSU. Wisconsin will win nearly all their games against teams with less disciplined defenses and will be a factor at some point in the conference race.
Sunday Night Links
- Tom Izzo Wired for Sound on CBS
Ironically, I’m not sure the coach sounds all that different than the rest of us do during games; it’s just that no one listens to the rest of us. - Weekly Watch: Cal, MSU’s Lucas take home honors
Kalin Lucas gets props from Andy Katz. (Hat tip: MooTheKow) - Now Accepting Basket-BlogPoll Applications
Brian Cook, AKA The Godfather of college sports bloggers, is expanding his operation. - Why did I start StatSheet? a video…
I’m late on this–too late for you to vote in his support–but kudos to Robbie on his Crunchie nomination. - A win is a win is a win, and the Gophers won
Very cool surprise for From the Barn: A shout-out on national TV from Mr. Doug Gottlieb Thursday night. I guess you never know who might be reading these dispatches from our mothers’ basements.
Site News
I need to go on vacation more often:
That’s an all-time high in page views for the Spartans Weblog over the past seven days–already surpassing the final week of last season’s NCAA Tournament run. Thanks to everyone for staying tuned this week, despite the fact that I only ended up seeing about one-third of the past three MSU games live and relied more on you guys than you could rely on me. The good news is I now have no excuse not to be fully rested for a great stretch drive of blogging and, knock on wood, Big Ten title-level basketball from our Spartans.
There’s one obvious reason that Lucas’s assists go down when he’s scoring more – you can’t get an assist on your own shot!
More seriously, I haven’t been able to see all of the recent games, but I suspect it may be because teams have to pick between leaving him one-on-one (and he’s quick enough off the dribble to get open looks if they do) and sending help his way on defense (opening someone else up for an easy shot). I think Neitzel was the same way to a degree – if you took away his shots, he’d just dump it off to the open man.
Videotape? What century are you living in?
That would be the 20th century, Mark. And things are just fine here.
A DVR is on the agenda for the Spartans Weblog household in the next couple months.
I would just like to note that the above Mark is not me. I’m still living in the 20th century also (well sort of – I have a Blue Ray player, which is certainly 21st century – but no DVR. Unless my new player doubles as a DVR, but if it does I haven’t gotten that far into the user’s manual). I have no room to criticize anyone else’s lack of technological adoption.
Also, I never thought I’d see a stat line in which Ibok has twice as many assists and Lucas. Talk about the world being upside down. I was impressed with Ibok Saturday and could see him getting significant minutes against teams that would otherwise have a height advantage against us as long as he continues to play excellent D. He might be the key to keeping Mullens in check when we play OSU again.
I have no problem with Lucas taking shots rather than dishing assists as long as he keeps averaging 2 points per shot – when a guy is that hot you want him shooting. If Allen finds his stroke again this will be one heck of a scoring machine from the perimeter.
As a stat guy, I wonder if you have a way of measuring a player’s effectiveness from a defensive perspective. How many points is his defense worth or not worth? I felt that Ibok’s presence was worth 8-10 points through blocks and shot alterations, perhaps even more. How many points was Walton’s first half defense on Collins worth – from points created off turnovers to missed shots. We so often look at the points players are contributing offensively, but the defensive “points” are equally as valuable, or even more so as they have a demoralizing effect on the other team.
Well, we’ll see about the Lucas assists. Seemed to me he found himself pretty open on his jumpshots. The scouting report on him may still say better to keep him in front of you and let him shoot than to get closer and risked getting burned on a drive to the rim or a drive and dish. If he keeps shooting well, that should eventually change.
Loved seeing Lucious get serious PT. Wished there was more Lucas-Summers-Allen on the floor at the same time by this point of the season. I don’t think this team reaches full potential until all three can be on the floor at once consistently being able to play the D Izzo requires to free up for fast-paced high-flying break opportunities, which more people should REALLY realize is what Izzo prefers.
As far as defensive statistics, we had a discussion earlier this year about calculating a plus-minus ratio for players or looking at the scoring dropoff in the guy they were pricipally responsible for to get a handle on individual defensive efficiency. The conclusion was that because subbing is more random in basketball than in hockey (entire lines sub together in hockey vs individual players in basketball so the player combinations are more random and varied in basketball) a plus minus calculation really isn’t possible.
Substitutions and switches (which are common) also make it difficult to judge a player’s defensive impact on the player he is principally guarding unless you track the team while watching them on tape in real time, which is very labor intensive. Generally you’re not going to get sufficient information from the box score to generate good individual stats by which you can judge a player’s defensive ability.
Dylan at UMHoops.com is doing plus/minus stats for all of Michigan’s games. It will be interesting to see how much that method improves statistical analysis of individual defense.
You mentioned Ed Hightower. My goodness is he an atrocious official. It’s a good thing the ridiculous “foul” call against Walton on Collins’ “3-point” attempt wasn’t a factor. Referees miss calls, I get that. But there’s no excuse for incompetence.
I’m sure Ed will make his presence felt at some point during B10 play.
Totally agree with Mark. Walton’s non-foul aside, the award of three shots was, in all seriousness, probably the most patently ridiculous call I’ve ever seen in college basketball. So many bad calls are just that — judgment calls. Even if the call is completely wrong, the game happens quickly, people make mistakes, etc. (The underlying foul call is a good example.) But there was no possible way to look at the video of that call and believe that it was anything but a 2-point shot. No possible way. To fly in the face of absolutely indisputable evidence on _replay_ just boggles my mind. Good thing it didn’t make a difference; anyway, I’d rather release our bad refereeing karma in a more-or-less already-decided game like Saturday’s before heading to State College. Hopefully PSU will get fewer than 300 FTs this year.
Speaking of Walton, I wish there was a thumbs-up emoticon I could use here. He was fantastic.
That Draymond jumper was a flashback to his high school days. I know 3 points/2 boards is nothing to get excited about, but if he displays anywhere near the range/post game he did at Saginaw, he will become a very tough matchup in the Big 10.
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