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Archive for January, 2009
MSU-Ohio State Open Thread
Posted in open thread, tagged ohio state on January 25, 2009 | 173 Comments »
No matter what the odds are this time
Posted in goofy video on January 24, 2009 | 1 Comment »
Saturday Morning Links
Posted in links, tagged chris allen, russell byrd, tom izzo on January 24, 2009 | 1 Comment »
- MSU’s Izzo: Pick up the purpose
100 three-point makes for Chris Allen after every practice. For whatever reason, he’s never really looked like a Respert/Neitzel-like shooter to me in terms of consistency. - Green Lenses Takes Izzo and the Pistons Under the Microscope
Spartan Nation takes Tom Izzo to task for Wednesday’s loss. Agree they didn’t attack the interior of the 1-3-1 enough. Disagree about sticking with the small lineup; we needed Walton or Morgan to guard Kevin Coble. - Braves break out of five-game slide
Russell Byrd playing point guard this season; should make him more versatile at the college level. - What’s wrong with these guys?
Badgercentric on Wisconsin’s recent struggles. - Most Impressive
Off the Tracks on Purdue’s big road win over Minnesota. Still worried about Robbie Hummel’s ongoing back issues, though. - Illini hope to extend Wisconsin’s misery
Big Ten Game of the Day (4:00, ESPN).
Ohio State Game Preview
Posted in game preview, tagged ohio state on January 23, 2009 | 6 Comments »
3:45 Sunday. Value City Arena, Columbus. CBS.
The Buckeyes enter Sunday’s game with a 3-3 record in Big Ten play. Two of those wins, though, were home games against Iowa and Indiana. The third was on the road against Michigan. Ohio State is coming off an 18-point road loss to Illinois on Tuesday, in which Eleven Warriors says they “gave up.”
Ohio State continues to struggle on offense. They’ve failed to post a point per possession in their last six games against top 50 competition (based on Kenpom).
Rebounding is a major weakness on both ends of the court. Ohio State ranks 249th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and 157th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Defensively, the team continues to excel at forcing tough shots inside the three-point arc (Opp 2Pt%=42.8%), partly by blocking a lot of shots (Block% of 18.4% is second best in the country). And they don’t foul a lot playing Thad Matta’s zone defense (2-3 or 3-2?).
The numbers would seem to favor MSU. But it’s important to keep in mind that Ohio State (1) will be very hungry for a home win to stay in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth and (2) has the horses to go toe-to-toe with MSU at four out of the five positions on the court:
- A shooting guard who was hit 40.6% of his 3-point attempts this year (Jon Diebler).
- A versatile swing man averaging 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game (Evan Turner).
- A power forward who blocks 2.6 shots per game (Dallas Lauderdale).
- A talented freshman center who’s starting to round into shape, having scored 12 points or more in his last five games on 71.7% FG shooting (B.J. Mullens).
The weak point in the lineup is point guard, where two juco transfers (Jeremie Simmons and P.J. Hill) are splitting minutes.
A wild card for the Buckeyes is freshman guard William Buford, who has emerged as a consistent scoring option. Burford has scored 13 points or more in his last five games, making 13 of 31 three-point attempts (41.9%) over that span.
The last time these two teams met, MSU shot well from beyond the arc, pulled down some offensive rebounds, got to the free throw line, and shut down Turner and Diebler. That sounds like a pretty good formula for Sunday. Of course, things generally don’t play out exactly the same way twice.
With the development of Mullens and Buford, MSU will have to play even better defensively. If Turner and Diebler were to emerge from their recent shooting slumps, Ohio State could finally break through the point-per-possession mark against a quality foe.
On offense, the onus may once again be on Kalin Lucas (20 points on 8 FG attempts in the first meeting) to make plays against the less talented Buckeye point guards. Hopefully, the extra day before this game will give Raymar Morgan time to get back to near 100% after his bout with the flu. And, if ever Chris Allen were going to find his shooting stroke, this would be the game, against the OSU zone.
Kenpom predicts a 67-66 Spartan win in a 65-possession game. This will be yet another dogfight. A win would would make up for Wednesday’s loss and regain our momentum heading into the middle stanza of conference play.
P.S. I’ll go ahead and put up another open thread Sunday afternoon in case people want to chat during the game. (And don’t worry about jinxing the team by doing an in-game chat again. I already burned the clothes I wore Wednesday night.)
Northwestern Game Recap (1/21/09)
Posted in game recap, tagged chris allen, goran suton, kalin lucas, northwestern on January 21, 2009 | 10 Comments »
The Wildcats stun the Spartans 70-63 in a 63-possession game. StatSheet box score.
The Spartan fan half of my brain is pretty mad about this one. We lost to Northwestern, of all teams, to end a 28-game home court winning streak and ruin a perfect conference record. And we did it by completely losing our composure for long stretches, throwing pass after pass into the stands or the hands of the opposition.
The basketball analyst in me. meanwhile, thinks this result was pretty fluky. Witness:
- Our leading scorer not attempting a single field goal (as far as the box score is concerned) in 18 minutes of play due to the flu.
- Our perimeter shooting specialist missing all eight of his 3-point attempts.
- Multiple Wildcat players knocking down three-pointers from 3-6 feet behind the line–two of those shots coming with the game on the line in the final minutes.
Given Morgan’s and Allen’s struggles, it was a uphill battle just to have a shot at the end. Kalin Lucas (20 points on 7-12 FG shooting) and Goran Suton (15 points, 14 rebounds) were the only playmakers against the zone. And Lucas had a very un-Lucas like six turnovers. That wouldn’t be so bad, except that Chris Allen managed to top him by coughing the ball up seven times.
Hence this graph:
I’m at a loss to explain the problems against the Wildcat 1-3-1 zone. The coaches and players knew it was coming, and Tom Izzo is usually among the best in the game at preparing for zone defenses. There were a few miscues early, but once they settled in MSU made quick, decisive passes to create good shots in the first half.
In the second half, the guards and Allen suddenly lost their bearings, making a series of bizarre passes on the perimeter, rather than trying to get the ball into the middle of the zone.
I give Northwestern all the credit in the world. They played their defensive system to perfection, and Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore showed no hesitation whatsoever in knocking down big shots down the stretch. Northwestern probably had a win in a close game coming to them, and we probably had a loss in a close game coming to us.
But this is a game MSU wins by 10 points under normal circumstances. If I were Tom Izzo (and thank goodness I’m not), I’d burn the game film and move on.
That’s all for tonight. After two hours of watching the MSU offense in 1-3-1 land and another two hours of watching the Losties in time-shifting land, I’m pretty disoriented.
Next up: A trip to Columbus on Sunday (3:45, CBS).
MSU-Northwestern Open Thread
Posted in links, open thread, tagged northwestern on January 21, 2009 | 135 Comments »
This is our first live-chatting endeavor. For now, we’ll just use the commenting system.
I don’t think I really need to do this, but just to be sure, here are the dual commenting guidelines:
1. No profanity.
2. Be civil.
Alright, raise your hand if you’re here. Yesterday I picked Chris Allen as tonight’s breakout player. Which player are the rest of you keeping an eye on?
Pregame Reading
- Suddenly Slowest: The Pac-10
Another conference is more plodding than we are! - Mark Montgomery: Spartans must limit turnovers, crash boards vs. Wildcats’ zone
What did I tell you yesterday? - STF Q&A: Seth Davis
Touches on the Magic-Bird book. - Big Ten in the Prestige Rankings
Bonus football link 1: MSU ranks 4th in the Big Ten on strength of performances in 1960s. - The State of Recruiting
Bonus football link 2: Surprised that only 32.5% of MSU football players are in-state recruits. Google Map is here. Can’t we get at least a couple guys from Texas? (Speaking of Texas, does Mack Brown have the best job in college football or what?)
Northwestern Game Preview
Posted in game preview, links, tagged northwestern on January 20, 2009 | 1 Comment »
Live Chat Tomorrow Night
“Live chat” is probably overselling it, but I am encouraging people to check in during tomorrow night’s game. I’ll post an open thread and we’ll just use the commenting system to share our thoughts.
My desktop computer and TV are in separate rooms and I don’t have wireless internet yet, so I’ll probably only comment during timeouts. But hopefully we can get some decent conversation going. Once I get the wireless thing going, I can use my laptop to moderate real live chats.
Anyway, if you can, stop by tomorrow night starting around 6:15.
Tuesday Night Links
- Ex-SPN
Major bummer. - Izzo unsure of whether Morgan will play Wednesday
They do get their flu shots, so don’t blame Tom Izzo. - Tom Izzo is making more promises
The Geeks concede we are, in fact, pushing the pace some this season. - Morris Peterson: Mateen Cleaves was the best PG he played with (he plays with Chris Paul now. wow.)
It’s Just Sports snagged an interview with MoPete. - Update on future Spartan roundballers
Keith Appling and Derrick Nix lay the smack down on an Ohio team. - A very early look at who’s looking good and who needs some help
Very hard to break down Big Ten past MSU at the moment. SI.com has Minnesota, Ohio State, and Illinois as “Should Be In” and Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, and Northwestern (on a technicality) as “In the Mix.” - Game 16: Northwestern @ Michigan State
Opposition game preview.
Northwestern Game Preview
6:30 Wednesday. The Breslin Center. BTN.
With our two games against the Wildcats getting bunched up into the first six games of the conference schedule, this game represents the first time since I started this blog that we’ve played an opponent for the fourth time. I have to tell you, the Northwestern previews sort of write themselves. The keys always end up being:
- Don’t turn the ball over against the 1-3-1.
- Knock down your 3-point looks.
- Make good interior passes to beat the zone.
- Force the Northwestern players to try to beat you off the dribble, rather than giving up open 3-point looks or back-door cuts.
- Take advantage of your big edge on the boards.
So I’ll dispense with the usual statistical breakdown. (Here’s the NW Kenpom profile, if you want to take a look for yourself.)
I will say that, despite the facts that (1) we’ve already beaten them once on the road and (2) their conference record now stands at 1-4, Northwestern remains a dangerous team. The Wildcats are coming off an upset win over Minnesota. Prior to that game, they outplayed Purdue for most of the game before collapsing at the end (both games were at home).
Offensively, 6’3″ senior Craig Moore was a major factor in both games, scoring a combined 38 points on 10-18 three-point shooting. Defensively, 6’4″ junior Jeremy Nash, who’s been getting increased minutes as conference play has progressed, posted three steals in each of the two games.
Kenpom predicts a 70-60 MSU win in a 64-possession game. Raymar Morgan, who posted 22 points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting, may be limited in this one. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Chris Allen steps into the role of primary scorer against the Northwestern zone this time around, shaking off his recent shooting slump (3-16 three-point shooting in his last four games).
Monday Night Musings: Crashing the Glass Edition
Posted in links, rankings update, stats analysis, tagged delvon roe, goran suton, offensive rebounding on January 19, 2009 | 5 Comments »
Rankings Update
- AP: #7 (steady from last week)
- Coaches: #7 (up from #10)
- Sagarin: #8 (up from #10)
- Kenpom: #18 (up from #23)
- RPI: #3 (up from#4)
- Bracketology: #2 seed (up from #3 seed)
The human voters now agree that we’re the best two-loss, non-UNC team in the country. Sagarin basically agrees (with one-loss Clemson ranked a spot ahead of us there) and has us with the most wins in the country against top 50 opponent with seven: Illinois, Texas, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Northwestern (!), Maryland Ohio State.
Nice to see Illinois move into both the AP and coaches’ top 25 despite losing to us on Saturday.
Monday Night Links
- Spartans not at prime – yet
Morgan had the flu on Saturday. - MSU retires Peterson’s #42
Video including MoPete’s comments to the crowd. - Honor Roll: Big Ten Players
Kudos for Goran Suton from Hoopraker. - Balcony seats $5 for IU’s seven remaining home
File under “Signs of the Apocalypse.”
A Link Worth Highlighting
Eric Lacy had a nice piece over the weekend on Tom Izzo’s willingness to give the players more freedom on offense this season.
“I don’t want to be known as just a physical team,” Izzo said. “I don’t want to be known as just a defensive team. I want us to put the whole package together — now.”
That means more 3-pointers and jump shots — often earlier in the shot clock — more plays that spread the floor, more screens and a livelier transition game.
It’s not monumental change, but it’s significant enough that it forces opponents to show more respect defensively to the Spartans’ entire playing group.
The article notes that part of the adjustment in philosophy on offense is recruiting-driven (guys want to play an NBA-style game) and part of it is adjusting to personnel. Last year, I complained several times that the players didn’t have enough freedom on offense and, therefore, couldn’t react well when confronted with defensive pressure.
This season, we’re seeing a few more bad shots early in the shot clock, but we’re also seeing less tentativeness with the ball when a defense puts pressure on us (putting aside the first half against Illinois). The result, I think, has been fewer turnovers of the boneheaded variety.
(I don’t have any hard proof of this, mind you; our turnover percentage is only down by 0.6 points from last year. It’s just a general sense that more of our turnovers have been committed in the process of trying to initiate scoring opportunities.)
Crashing the Glass
During the long offseason, we speculated that Tom Izzo might finally have another complete roster of players that would allow him to play the no-holds-barred style he prefers on both ends of the court. The highest-profile aspect of that style, of course, is offensive rebounding. On paper, this team looked like it could be not just a good rebounding team, but a great one. Unfortunately, injuries to Delvon Roe and Goran Suton put a damper on those plans for a while.
With Suton back in the lineup, and Roe getting closer to full strength, the rebounding attack is now finally in full swing. MSU has posted a monstrous offensive rebounding percentage of 50.3% in conference play–almost 14 percentage points than the second best team in the league (Minnesota).
While that number is based on just a five-game sample, the Spartans’ consistency is telling: Over the last seven games (including the Oakland and Kansas games, as well), MSU’s offensive rebounding percentage has been above 45% in five games and has been no lower than 38% in any game. Offensive rebounding was arguable the difference between a win and a loss in each of the last two games.
Here’s a look at which players are contributing the most on the offensive glass (stats are for the five conference games only):
| Player | Mins/G | OffReb | OffReb/G | OffReb% |
| Lucas | 34.0 | 3 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Morgan | 30.8 | 12 | 2.4 | 8.6 |
| Walton | 28.0 | 5 | 1.0 | 3.9 |
| Suton | 27.6 | 16 | 3.2 | 12.8 |
| Allen | 20.4 | 8 | 1.6 | 8.7 |
| Summers | 17.2 | 8 | 1.6 | 10.3 |
| Roe | 14.6 | 14 | 2.8 | 21.2 |
| Gray | 11.2 | 4 | 0.8 | 7.9 |
| Lucious | 6.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Green | 4.8 | 2 | 0.4 | 9.2 |
| Ibok | 3.8 | 2 | 0.4 | 11.6 |
Bullets:
- Suton is picking up right where he left off last season, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8%.
- Roe, meanwhile, has simply been a monster on the offensive glass. 21.2% would be a very good defensive rebounding percentage. Despite averaging just 15 minutes/game (dragged down by playing only five minutes against Minneosta), Roe is pulling down nearly three offensive rebounds per game.
- Both Suton and Morgan are averaging 9.2 rebounds per game. (Morgan is excelling on the defensive glass, with a rebounding percentage of 24.4% on that end of the floor).
- Every non-point guard in the playing rotation has an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.0 or better (rounding Gray’s up).
- Six players are pulling down at least one offensive board per game.
Let’s revel in that last bullet for a moment. Here’s a segment from my post on MSU’s rebounding stats during the Izzo era from last June:
MSU ranked in the top 6 nationally during the four Big Ten championship seasons from 1997-98 to 2000-01, putting up an offensive rebounding percentage of 42% or higher in each season. While Antonio Smith was certainly a key factor in the Spartans’ offensive rebounding prowess, rebounding is ultimately a team effort (and Smith was only on the first two of those four teams). Here’s the number of players pulling down at least one offensive rebound per game in those four seasons:
- 1997-98: 7 (Smith, Bell, Hutson, Thomas, Peterson, Klein, Wiley)
- 1998-99: 6 (Smith, Peterson, Hutson, Granger, Bell, Klein)
- 1999-2000: 6 (Hutson, Peterson, Richardson, Anagonye, Bell, Granger)
- 2000-01: 6 (Randolph, Hutson, Thomas, Richardson, Anagonye, Bell)
There’s plenty of perimeter players on those lists: Bell, Peterson, Thomas, Klein, Richardson. The philosophy was simple: send four guys to the offensive glass on just about everything offensive shot . . .
You know what else those four seasons have in common? Here’s a hint: Take a look at the banners hanging from the rafters the next time you’re at the Breslin Center.
P.S. Who says government holidays don’t benefit society? Check out the blogging output today, baby.
To panic or not to panic?
Posted in coffee talk, commentary, links on January 22, 2009 | 13 Comments »
Thursday Night Links
TAFKATBTW.
Lake the Posts says biggest Northwestern win since 1994.
Dylan on the Wolverines’ recent struggles.
Eleven Warriors on the Buckeyes’ limited point guard options.
Crispin and Cream on the Lions’ NCAA chances.
Indeed.
Another StatSheet goodie. MSU ranks as 4th most experienced team in Big Ten. Wisconsin is #1.
Top Ten Reasons Not to Panic About a Home Loss to North-Freakin’-Western
10. We’re still in first place in the conference. Alone.
9. At some point, everyone will have had the flu and we’ll be done with that, right?
8. Goran Suton in conference play: 11 points and 10 rebounds per game, 59.8% eFG%.
7. Prediction: Kalin Lucas will not turn the ball over six times in a game again as a Spartan.
6. A loss to Northwestern won’t look nearly as bad on our tournament resume as it would in most years.
5. We have only two games left against teams that play the 1-3-1: home to Penn State and at Michigan. And Michigan doesn’t play it all that well.
4. Eight straight games with a team OffReb% of 38% or better.
3. Kenpom likes us in our next six games.
2. Tom Izzo has all the material he’ll need to motivate the players in practice for the next month.
1. Last year was last year. This year is this year.
Coffee Talk: Agree? Give us some more reasons not to fret. Disagree? Tell us why we should be freaking out.
Related: How many regular season conference wins are you expecting at this point?
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