Rankings Update
- AP: #13 (down from #9)
- Coaches: #14 (down from #9)
- Sagarin: #11 (down from #8)
- Kenpom: #21 (steady from last week)
- RPI: #5 (steady from last week)
- Bracketology: #3 seed (down from #3 seed)
- Crashing the Dance: #3 seed
Purdue is ranked one spot ahead of us in both the human polls, reflecting that we’re now basically back to being dead even with them. Kenpom currently projects a 13-5 conference finish for both teams, with Illinois (12-6) and Minnesota (11-7) also in the mix.
I’ve added Crashing the Dance to the list. As you’ll recall from last year, the site uses quantitative methods to try to predict the behavior of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee based on past results.
Monday Night Links
- Morgan out this week … probably
The news is not getting any better. Only upside: More PT for Mrs. SW’s fav, Austin Thornton. Isaiah Dahlman apparently out for a while with an ankle sprain. - The hits keep comin’
Ugh. And Suton may have reaggrivated his right knee in practice today. CORRECTION: I misread the article. He injured his left knee, not the right one (which is the one he had surgery on in December). - KNIGHT REPORT
Why do we need Bobby to return when his son is continuing the Knight legacy with such gusto? - 3 thoughts on the offseason
With his time at the Marquette Mining Journal coming to a close, friend-of-the-blog (and occasional commenter) Kurt is back to blogging about the Tigers; check out his personal writing site, as well.
Conference Midseason Review: The Teams
Here’s your up-to-the-minute, conference-only tempo-free aerial:
I’ve used 1.03 points per possession–the conference average to date this season–as the midpoint for each axis. While the 10 non-IU teams have sorted themselves out a lot more neatly than they did in nonconference play, no team has grabbed the mantle of “solidly above average on both ends of the court.” MSU has the best offense in the league, but is basically average on defense. Purdue and Illinois have been the class of the league defensively, but mediocre on offense. Same deal, with a somewhat less stout defense, for Minnesota.
The simplest way to frame the conference race from a statistical standpoint is this: Which happens first in the second half of league play? MSU playing improved defense or Purdue scoring more efficiently? Can one (or both) of them move their dot into middle of the upper, right-hand quadrant?
The two big surprises relative to nonconference performance are:
- Ohio State, which has leapt from the good defense/bad offense quadrant to the good offense/bad defense quadrant (they’re currently exactly where Penn State is). The improvement in offense has been fueled by the development of freshmen B.J. Mullens and William Buford. On defense, opponents are making 38.2% of their three-point attempts–not good for a team that tries to force perimeter shots with its zone defense.
- Michigan, which has gone from the being best offensive Big Ten team in nonconference play, by a healthy margin, to hanging out in tempo-free land with the Hawkeyes and Wildcats in. (More on that below.)
Final note: While conference-only data are the analytical ideal, my sense is that the midseason data are less reliable than they might have been in years past. It used to be that you played nine different teams in your first nine games, as the conference employed an out-and-back scheduling scheme. For whatever reason, teams now regularly play the same oppnent twice in the first half of the schedule. MSU, for example, has already played Northwestern, Ohio State, and Penn State twice each–meaning they’ve played only 6 of 10 total conference opponents to date. Given that all three of those teams are below-average on defense, MSU’s offense may not be quite as dominant as the numbers currently indicate.
Conference Midseason Review: The Players
Here’s your Spartans Weblog Midseason All-Conference Team, based exclusively on in-conference stats/performance:
- Talor Battle (Penn State)
18.7 points/game, 39.0% 3pt%, 44.0% FT rate, 5.0 assists/game, 2.4 TOs/game
I don’t think anyone who saw Sunday’s game needs me to throw any more superlatives Battle’s way. The conference player of the year to date. - Kalin Lucas (Michigan State)
19.2 points/game, 38.2% 3pt%, 46.7% FT rate, 3.7 assista/game, 2.4 TOs/game
Assists are down, but scoring is way up since the nonconference season. Shooting a very good 46.2% on 2-pointer given the number of shots he takes late in the shot clock (well above the 40% threshold I set for him during his early-season slump). - Lawrence Westbrook (Minnesota)
15.0 points/game, 57.8% eFG%, 88.9% FT%, 1.6 TOs/game
Westbrook has been a model on consistency for a Gophers team that was looking for a go-to player going into the conference season; he’s scored in double digits in every conference game. - Goran Suton (Michigan State)
10.7 points/game, 60.0% eFG%, 9.9 rebounds/game, 13.8 OffReb%, 27.0% DefReb%
I’ll confess to a bit of homerism here. But Mr. Suton has been utterly dominant on the glass, ranking 2nd in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and first in defensive rebounding percentage. - JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
12.8 points/game, 53.8% 2pt%, 70.7% FT rate, 7.4 rebounds/game, 11.2% OffReb%, 10.1% Block%
The best all-around post player in the league, despite having to play surrouneded by four guards for large stretches of time.
Battle is the only returnee from my pre-conference season all-conference team, although you could make a pretty good case for Robbie Hummel (despite missed time due to his back issues) and Evan Turner. Battle, Lucas, and Johnson are the only first-team locks. Westbrook just edged out Northwestern’s Craig Moore (40.0% on a league-leading 82 three-point attempts).
As for the two other players on the pre-conference season version of the team, the numbers are not as pretty as they once were:
- Manny Harris: 14.0 points/game, 41.1% eFG%, 7.2 rebounds/game, 3.3 assists/game, 3.9 turnovers/game
- DeShawn Sims: 13.3 points/game, 48.3 eFG%, 5.9 rebounds/game, 8.6% OffReb%, 17.2% DefReb%
Harris has basically reverted to the freshman version of himself statistically (except for a big jump in rebounds). Sims’ production hasn’t plummeted quite as far, but his 2-point shooting percentage has dropped 9 points and he’s lost 2-3 percentage points on his rebounding percentages. Without these two guys playing at the stratospheric levels they achieved during nonconfernce play, Michigan’s offense has fallen to NIT-quality levels, if not below.
Coffee Talk: Who’s impressed you the most in conference play to date (teams or players)? Who did I miss on the all-conference team? Does anyone out there (besides his mother) love Goran Suton as much as I do?
I routinely say that Goran Suton is the greatest basketball player in the history of the Big Ten Conference and, while possibly over-the-top, people are starting to come around on this one.
Lets hope for the best with regard to Suton’s knee – if he is missing or ineffective against Minnesota with Morgan out completely I don’t give us much of a chance. Maybe the team will surprise me but that’s our two best post players out and the guards can only do so much.
Suton has been a monster on the boards, has scored very efficiently (low turnover rate for a big man and a high shooting percentage) and deserves some accolades. I only wish he were just a little more involved in the scoring since his effective field goal percentage is up there at 60 percent.
As far as team efficiencies go, our offensive efficiency may take a bit of a dip, but we’ve played 5 games against the average or betters on offense, and 4 against the below averages. Of those 4 games, three were against the best below average offenses (one vs. Illinois and 2 aganist NW). We have yet to play Indiana, Michigan, and have only played Iowa once.
We have one remaining game against an above average offense – Wisconsin. I guess what I’m saying is that our D should improve during the second half of the Big 10 schedule because we still have a fair number of games against the worst offenses. Not exactly the way I’d want to improve on D but it will move us further up into the decent O decent D portion of the graph. That is, of course, assuming we remain healthy.
Suton has been a beast on the boards and has hit some big shots this year. I think his three point shooting percentage may be higher than his layup percentage. He has been a consistent presence on both ends of the floor, and what he has contributed would be just right for this team if…
Morgan was healthy, and if when he was healthy, he was a more consistent performer.
Roe was able to provide more scoring .
Allen wasn’t in a shooting slump.
Absent those things, despite all he has contributed, I feel this team needs even more from Suton. I’m in the camp that would like to see Suton get more touches and have more plays run for him, and I’d like to see him exert himself more. With Morgan out, he needs to play with the attitude that he is the guy that is going to carry this team.
The Suton injury got me thinking about how inexperienced our bigs will be next year. Looking at Kj’s projected roster scares me: Sherman, Nix, Roe, and Green. Unless Roe & Green improve dramatically on defense, we will get eaten alive down low. And what happens when Roe or Green get into foul trouble? We never appreciate our talented big men until they are gone (Davis, Hudson, Randolph, Granger even Naymick)
Who’s a big fan of Suton? You know I am. And Spartan fans the world over should be as well. You’ll miss him next year.
Make a note of how everyone on the MSU team seemed to get a little better when Suton came back. The team that wasn’t competitive at all against Maryland & UNC suddenly wins at Texas and over Kansas and is still sitting in first place in a very competitive Big Ten conference. Suton is crucial for your team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see your defensive troubles lessened when Raymar Morgan comes back. To wit, Kevin Coble is cold in the first NU match-up but off like crazy in the second, and the ailing Raymar in game 2 is not a coincidence.
I too love Suton and have appreciated the things he contributes which many casual fans don’t appreciate (screens, defensive position, poise). The game seems to slow down when the ball is in his hands and for a team that sometimes plays way too fast, that’s a nice thing to have.
As for next year’s big men, we are a bit thin, thus I would expect Morgan to play a lot at the four. Given that we’ll have plenty of wings (Allen, Summers, Thornton, Dahlman, Lucious and maybe Wilson) it seems Raymar may be needed more inside, even though we’d be best served with him at the 3.
Chris: I was think the same thing the other day about how inexperienced our bigs will be next season.
But enough talk about next year: The future is now! Big Ten title or bust!
I have been impressed by MN, and particularly their young front line. I don’t say this just because they are in the crosshairs for Wednesday’s game either.
MN starts 2 true freshmen in the front court, Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson. They are freshmen, meaning they have moments of brilliance, and moments where they are being shown the ropes, such as MSU’s rebounding dominance over them @ MN.
All things being equal though, they are holding their own, on the third place team in the conference. I think they are a big reason why Tubby has the Gopher performing ahead of expectations.
Also, RJ- interesting point about the Big Ten scheduling wrinkle, and the impact on statistics.
Suton getting some love! And I thought I was the only Suton fan out there… I too find it puzzling that they never run anything for him, particularly from outside. This year he has finally become consistent. You know you will get very close to a double double out of him night in night out; and I agree with several others that his presence on the floor dramatically improves both the spartan offense and its interior defense.
As for next year? I suspect Herzog will finally be good for 10-15 minutes a game. Green will play honorably, and I predict that Roe will lead the big ten in rebounding, and will shooting 10-12 foul shots a game. The college game is all about managing transitions every year, but I think the spartans will actually be in pretty good shape in the front line, particularly if either Nix or Sherman are the real deal, rather than projects. Moreover, with their returning back court and wing players, the bigs will just have to defend and rebound, without much pressure on them to produce points.
[...] Big Ten Geeks have all the tempo free Big Ten statistics that you could possibly need. KJ posted an updated aerial last [...]
I too am on the Suton bandwagon. He is a prime example of a player that has progressed significantly under the guidance of Izzo. My younger bro said his friend’s younger brother (who played for Okemos) used to abuse Suton when they went up against each other in highschool… and given that m bro’s friend’s brother wasn’t particularly good – I didn’t think that faired well for how Suton would do at MSU. He’s come a long way and is a great player now. I still don’t think he’s quite at the level of someone like Paul Davis – but he’s much closer than I’d have ever imagined.
So far as next year goes… I honestly have no idea what to expect. I hope that Roe’s offensive game grows a lot and provides a viable replacement for Suton’s scoring. I have a hard time seeing Nix or Sherman come in and make any sort of impact their frehsman year… Nix because it sounds like he’s just not build/conditioned for the college game yet (ala Pittman for Texas last year)… Sherman because I have this thing where I assume tall skinny white guys that aren’t ranked at the very top of their class are never any good as freshmen
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Ohio St. beats Purdue… Nice. Purdue has a little injury bug hurting their conference record, too. No Hummel from what I can see.
[...] would be of the good offense/bad defense variety. In conference play, though, they’ve been the third best defensive team in the conference, while playing at a league-average level [...]