Wednesday Night Links
- Game 25: Michigan State at Michigan Post Game
Dylan on last night’s game. Points out that the series of fairly random events that ended the first half was a pretty big key to the MSU win. - Two Winners in Michigan
Hoopraker. Not sure our Wolverine friends will agree. - Better days at Crisler
Eric Lacy on the UM crowd. As I posted in the comments today, I thought the crowd was more impressive in terms of volume (fewer MSU fans) but not all that impressive in terms of intensity. - Travel costs will not play a larger role in this year’s NCAA tourney
So much for the selection committee sending us straight to Ford Field.
- Wisconsin’s Basketball Rivals
We’re #1! - Fighting an overtime hangover
Why does Purdue struggle after OT losses?
Site New of the I’m-Taking-a-Break Variety
The blogging pace around here has been pretty fast and furious of late, and I’m afraid I’m a little burnt out. Additionally, I have a couple very busy days coming up at work, followed by a long weekend out of town. Conveniently, MSU doesn’t have a game this weekend.
Long story, short: New content will be slim to none until next Monday night, when I should be back to do a preview of the Purdue game. I’ll try to put up a couple Coffee Talk/open thread posts in the meantime.
To Help Make it Up to You, Here’s a Big Dump of Obscure Data
I know you’ve all been yearning for another dose or PORPAG. So I’ve calculated the stat for major Big Ten contributors using conference-only data. Technical notes:
- As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a “replacement-level” player would provide.
- Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
- I’ve set the pace factor at 62.5 (the average number of possessions in Big Ten games to date). I’ve left replacement level at an offensive rating of 88.0.
- The table below includes all the players that showed up in the StatSheet leaderboards for all three stats. That’s basically every player who’s played at least 40.0% of his team’s minutes in conference play, with a few exceptions.
The data:
| Player | Yr | Pos | School | Off Rtg | Poss% | Min% | PORPAG |
| Kalin Lucas | So | G | Michigan State | 114.7 | 27.5 | 83.1 | 3.82 |
| Matt Gatens | Fr | G | Iowa | 126.1 | 17.9 | 87.0 | 3.71 |
| Evan Turner | So | G-F | Ohio State | 109.4 | 28.3 | 95.1 | 3.59 |
| Craig Moore | Sr | G | Northwestern | 115.3 | 22.3 | 93.5 | 3.54 |
| Talor Battle | So | G | Penn State | 107.3 | 28.3 | 94.1 | 3.21 |
| Jon Diebler | So | G | Ohio State | 120.9 | 16.0 | 93.7 | 3.08 |
| Jason Bohannon | Jr | G | Wisconsin | 125.3 | 16.1 | 80.9 | 3.03 |
| JaJuan Johnson | So | F | Purdue | 112.6 | 25.1 | 74.9 | 2.88 |
| Marcus Landry | Sr | F | Wisconsin | 112.2 | 23.8 | 78.4 | 2.82 |
| William Buford | Fr | G | Ohio State | 113.0 | 20.9 | 86.1 | 2.80 |
| Goran Suton | Sr | C | Michigan State | 120.3 | 18.4 | 69.8 | 2.59 |
| Joe Krabbenhoft | Sr | G-F | Wisconsin | 119.2 | 17.0 | 77.3 | 2.57 |
| Jamelle Cornley | Sr | F | Penn State | 107.1 | 23.3 | 90.9 | 2.53 |
| Lawrence Westbrook | Jr | G | Minnesota | 112.4 | 24.6 | 63.1 | 2.36 |
| Demetri McCamey | So | G | Illinois | 106.1 | 24.8 | 77.3 | 2.17 |
| DeShawn Sims | Jr | F | Michigan | 107.1 | 23.6 | 74.2 | 2.09 |
| Matt Roth | Fr | G | Indiana | 130.4 | 14.9 | 52.1 | 2.06 |
| Kevin Coble | Jr | F | Northwestern | 101.2 | 26.9 | 85.8 | 1.90 |
| Stanley Pringle | Sr | G | Penn State | 103.5 | 24.0 | 81.6 | 1.89 |
| Durrell Summers | So | G | Michigan State | 110.1 | 22.1 | 58.5 | 1.79 |
| Trent Meacham | Sr | G | Illinois | 112.1 | 15.5 | 72.6 | 1.69 |
| Mike Tisdale | So | C | Illinois | 108.4 | 21.8 | 57.8 | 1.60 |
| Jeremie Simmons | Jr | G | Ohio State | 109.0 | 19.9 | 61.1 | 1.60 |
| B.J. Mullens | Fr | C | Ohio State | 105.2 | 24.5 | 54.8 | 1.44 |
| Raymar Morgan | Jr | F | Michigan State | 114.5 | 19.9 | 42.5 | 1.40 |
| Devan Dumes | Jr | G | Indiana | 102.1 | 26.5 | 59.8 | 1.40 |
| Michael Thompson | So | G | Northwestern | 101.0 | 19.8 | 85.3 | 1.37 |
| Jeff Peterson | So | G | Iowa | 96.8 | 26.0 | 90.8 | 1.29 |
| Zack Novak | Fr | G | Michigan | 108.9 | 13.1 | 73.2 | 1.25 |
| Delvon Roe | Fr | F | Michigan State | 111.1 | 19.0 | 43.8 | 1.20 |
| Mike Davis | So | F | Illinois | 101.5 | 19.4 | 70.8 | 1.16 |
| Ralph Sampson III | Fr | F-C | Minnesota | 107.3 | 15.3 | 56.3 | 1.04 |
| Chris Allen | So | G | Michigan State | 101.1 | 26.2 | 46.9 | 1.01 |
| E’Twaun Moore | So | G | Purdue | 95.7 | 23.2 | 84.9 | 0.95 |
| Chris Kramer | Jr | G | Purdue | 107.2 | 12.9 | 59.0 | 0.91 |
| Manny Harris | So | G | Michigan | 93.4 | 31.9 | 80.6 | 0.87 |
| Jon Leuer | So | F | Wisconsin | 97.1 | 25.8 | 56.9 | 0.84 |
| Damian Johnson | Jr | F | Minnesota | 98.9 | 17.9 | 68.5 | 0.84 |
| Lewis Jackson | Fr | G | Purdue | 97.3 | 20.1 | 58.5 | 0.68 |
| Kelvin Grady | So | G | Michigan | 100.2 | 14.4 | 53.2 | 0.59 |
| Travis Walton | Sr | G | Michigan State | 97.5 | 12.5 | 70.8 | 0.52 |
| Danny Morrissey | Sr | G | Penn State | 100.0 | 15.0 | 45.5 | 0.51 |
| Al Nolen | So | G | Minnesota | 93.1 | 21.7 | 64.1 | 0.45 |
| Jarryd Cole | So | F | Iowa | 99.6 | 14.1 | 43.8 | 0.45 |
| Nick Williams | Fr | G | Indiana | 92.7 | 22.0 | 68.8 | 0.45 |
| Jeremy Nash | Jr | G | Northwestern | 97.5 | 12.3 | 59.5 | 0.44 |
| Trevon Hughes | Jr | G | Wisconsin | 91.4 | 23.8 | 84.0 | 0.42 |
| Keaton Grant | Jr | G | Purdue | 92.7 | 17.4 | 73.7 | 0.38 |
| Chester Frazier | Sr | G | Illinois | 93.8 | 11.9 | 82.5 | 0.36 |
| Tom Pritchard | Fr | F | Indiana | 91.1 | 20.5 | 72.6 | 0.29 |
| Verdell Jones III | Fr | G | Indiana | 90.2 | 25.0 | 79.3 | 0.27 |
| Devan Bawinkel | Jr | G | Iowa | 94.0 | 13.0 | 45.2 | 0.22 |
| Marcus Green | Sr | F | Purdue | 91.6 | 16.6 | 44.1 | 0.16 |
| Calvin Brock | Sr | G | Illinois | 90.4 | 24.4 | 42.5 | 0.16 |
| Laval Lucas-Perry | Fr | G | Michigan | 89.9 | 21.0 | 60.4 | 0.15 |
| Stu Douglass | Fr | G | Michigan | 90.3 | 17.8 | 47.0 | 0.12 |
| Jermain Davis | Jr | G | Iowa | 88.9 | 16.1 | 52.8 | 0.05 |
| Blake Hoffarber | So | G | Minnesota | 87.4 | 14.7 | 53.0 | (0.03) |
| Jeff Brooks | So | F | Penn State | 85.7 | 12.4 | 48.0 | (0.08) |
| Jake Kelly | So | G | Iowa | 84.2 | 22.8 | 77.1 | (0.41) |
| Dallas Lauderdale | So | F | Ohio State | 72.7 | 11.5 | 53.0 | (0.58) |
Notes:
- Kalin Lucas is your leader. His FG shooting (43.3%/35.7%) and assist (3.5/game) numbers aren’t all that impressive. Free throw shooting (59-68 in 12 games) appears to be the key factor–and the fact he’s taken on an even larger role in the offense with Raymar Morgan’s illness.
- Talor Battle has faded; he’s made just 1 of 15 three-point attempts in the two games he’s played since scorching us from all over the court.
- MSU is the only team with six players posting 1.0 point or more of PORPAG. Ohio State has five. Not coincidentally, those two teams are #1 and #2 in in-conference offensive efficiency.
- JaJuan Johnson is your highest ranked big man. Phenomenal numbers considering his non-Hummel teammates are all below 1.0. (Hummel’s somewhere above 1.0, even in limited minutes, but I couldn’t extract all the numbers I needed from StatSheet for some odd reason).
- A lot of 3-point shooters in the top ten. Not sure if there’s an additional adjustment to be made using usage rate (%Poss). Taking out the guys with usage rates below 20%, you get a top five of Lucas, Turner, Moore, Battle, and Johnson. Not a bad all-conference team (recognizing, again, that these numbers tell us nothing about defense).
- The fact that Manny Harris is lodged between Chris Kramer and Jon Leuer highlights the fact that you can’t neatly separate out individual performance from team performance in basketball.
Bonus Item Only for People Who Go by the Name “SpartanDan”
SpartanDan, could you drop me an e-mail (spartansweblog@gmail.com), or check the e-mail address you use to comment? I have a question for you.
As for the rest of you, enjoy your weekends and rest up for the stretch drive to Tom Izzo’s fifth Big Ten title.
Make that 1-19 in three games for Battle. Purdue held him scoreless last night. Unbelievable.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=290422509
I think Izzp should study what Purdue does with their big men. JaJuan is the second guy they’ve had who has posted excellent efficiency numbers, despite the fact that he’s getting somewhat lackluster support from his teammates. Maybe they’ve just had two very talented bigs, but with him and Carl Landry, I’m starting to see a trend. If they could get some consistent help from the outside for those guys they would be very impressive on offense. Hummel would give them that but unfortunately he’s missed a lot of time hurt this year.
[...] Take this data and call me on Monday For the stat-heads, a look at in-conference efficiencies and such. [...]
kj – thanks for all of the hard work and enjoy your time off!
kj you ironically put up a big post with a lot of background work while declaring you are burnt out. Anyway, the season’s dog days must affect writers too.
That’s where you clearly don’t understand how my mind works, DP. Manipulating numbers in Excel is invigorating for me. It’s the writing that wears me down.
Wow, epic choke by Northwestern. That would have been big.
That was an unbelievable choke job. I could not believe my eyes. All they needed to do was avoid a turnover in ONE of their last 5 possessions and the game would have been theirs.
Most awkward postgame coach handshake ever. Weber tried to hug Carmody; Carmody squirmed free and kept walking.
Sure would be nice if NW hadn’t choked away leads against both Purdue and Illinois. Would make our loss to them look a little better.
And maybe it wouldn’t have gift-wrapped the conference title for MSU, but at least it would have allowed one of the interns at the AD to think about ordering a bag of those cheapo Target $1 bows.
Looking at Illiniois’ remaining schedule, they could easily win out and tie State for 1st in the B10. That’s assuming we take care of business at home. The only other possible loss for Illinois is at OSU. Don’t look now but Wisky is back to playing some ball. If they ruin our title hopes again I’ll be sick to my stomach. I see us losing @ Purdue (only if Hummel plays), and @ Ill. NW and PSU really screwed us this year. We would be looking at a #1 seed without those losses.
Don’t eliminate the possibility of a one seed. Who are the 1 seeds right now? UNC, OU, UConn, and Pitt, right? UConn and Pitt still play twice. If one team can sweep, the loser moves down to the two line. Who moves up? MSU, Duke, Clemson, ‘Nova, Missouri, Memphis, or UCLA. Clemson, Missouri, and UCLA are frauds. So, MSU just needs to win while Duke and ‘Nova lose a couple games and Memphis’s SOS plummets, and BAM! 1 Seed. 15-3 and a trip to B10 tourney finals probably does it.
We could be ranked 5th on Monday. The 8th, 7th, 6th, and 5th ranked teams all lost this week.
Louisville routed by ND, UCLA taken out by Arizona St. Wake Forest beat by NC State. Of course, Duke lost to UNC.
It probably won’t happen. We’ll probably be 7th or something. But it would put us the closest we’ve been since being ranked fifth at the beginning of the season.
Adam: I don’t think we pass Duke unless they flop against BC, primarily because we have so many relatively bad losses while Duke’s are all understandable. UCLA’s a close call, because their loss was at a ranked team, but I think we do pull ahead of them. Wake Forest is the most confusing team I’ve seen in ages – 3-0 against ranked teams in conference, 2-4 against unranked teams.
I think we end up 7th in the coaches’ poll, 7th or 8th in the AP (they have Memphis ahead of us instead of Wake right now). We’ll pass Louisville and either UCLA or Wake, but probably not both. (This assumes nothing crazy happens over the weekend.)
I think we have to win out to get a #1 seed. The 35 point loss to UNC will make it difficult for the selection committee to rank us as one of the 4 deserving teams. I don’t reallt care about the #1 seed. Spartan fans: If you had to choose between an outright B10 regular season championship or a Final Four loss, which do you choose? I’d pick the regular season championship.
I’d take the Final Four, Chris. Conference titles are nice, but national powerhouses earn that reputation in the tournament.
I’d agree that we need to win out to get a #1 seed, though I’m not sure the severity of the UNC loss would play that big a role (Ohio State lost to Florida by 26 the year they were a #1); the two home losses to less-than-great teams will hurt. Wake is playing its way out of the discussion by consistently screwing up against unranked foes, and Duke isn’t far ahead of us (to the extent that if we win out, I think we pull ahead), but jumping one of UNC, UConn, Pitt, or Oklahoma is going to be tough. However, if we sweep Purdue and Illinois and win the Big Ten tourney, especially with Morgan coming back, those two losses might get downplayed due to the injury/illness situation and that might be enough.
I would not mind being the 2 seed in whatever regional Duke would be the #1. After watching them against UNC I think Bob Knight is right about what kind of team can beat them, aggressive defenders, brutal rebounders and decent shooters. Sounds like MSU to me. I also agree that the win out scenario is probably needed for a #1, although a road loss to the Illini while winning the rest including the Big Ten Tournament would put us in the picture, especially if either UConn or Pitt experiences a collapse that includes three losses to finish out the season.
Check out the ESPN power rankings: MSU 5th, Duke 9th. We just switched. Interesting to see what the polls say.
Omar – that’s a nice thought. Exactly why I wanted to play the Cardinals instead of the Mets in the World Series two years ago. So we could win. Didn’t work out so well, though.
Adam, that week off killed us. Lucky for me I missed it. I was in Scotland the whole time and didn’t see a newspaper with any info on the Series the whole time. We got in real late on Saturday night and saw about 5 seconds of an interview with that malignant dwarf David Eckstein while he was dripping champagne. That’s all I needed to see.