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Final Conference-Only Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG)

March 9, 2009 by kj

Original PORPAG post is here.  The basics:

  • As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a “replacement-level” player would provide.
  • Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
  • I’ve set the pace factor at 61.5 (the average number of possessions in Big Ten games this season).  I’ve left replacement level at an offensive rating of 88.0.
  • This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact.  So missing time due to injury hurts you (Hummel/Morgan).
  • This is conference-only data (unfortunately for Manny Harris and, to a lesser extent, Talor Battle).
  • The table below includes all the players that showed up in the StatSheet leaderboards for all three stats that go into the calculation.  That’s basically every player who’s played at least 40.0% of his team’s minutes in conference play, with a few exceptions.
Player Team OffRtg Poss% Min% PORPAG
Evan Turner Ohio State 108.3 29.7 94.8 3.52
Kalin Lucas Michigan State 110.3 27.1 83.3 3.10
Jon Diebler Ohio State 119.8 16.0 95.6 2.99
Marcus Landry Wisconsin 112.8 23.9 77.7 2.83
Joe Krabbenhoft Wisconsin 118.9 19.2 77.3 2.81
JaJuan Johnson Purdue 112.4 24.1 72.7 2.62
Matt Gatens Iowa 112.4 19.1 89.2 2.55
Jason Bohannon Wisconsin 120.3 15.0 84.0 2.51
Craig Moore Northwestern 107.9 22.2 90.2 2.44
Kevin Coble Northwestern 106.2 25.6 85.1 2.44
DeShawn Sims Michigan 108.7 24.2 76.6 2.36
Talor Battle Penn State 102.4 28.4 93.8 2.36
Goran Suton Michigan State 114.1 20.0 68.6 2.20
William Buford Ohio State 108.2 21.0 82.3 2.14
Michael Thompson Northwestern 107.7 19.2 83.7 1.94
Lawrence Westbrook Minnesota 107.1 26.2 61.0 1.88
Stanley Pringle Penn State 103.1 23.5 78.1 1.71
Demetri McCamey Illinois 101.7 24.7 78.5 1.63
Matt Roth Indiana 119.8 14.6 56.7 1.62
B.J. Mullens Ohio State 108.0 23.1 56.1 1.60
Manny Harris Michigan 97.3 32.1 81.0 1.49
Jake Kelly Iowa 98.5 26.8 85.0 1.47
Zack Novak Michigan 109.9 12.9 77.7 1.34
Robbie Hummel Purdue 107.4 20.6 54.5 1.34
Andrew Jones III Penn State 114.4 12.2 66.2 1.31
Trevon Hughes Wisconsin 98.5 24.5 82.7 1.31
Mike Davis Illinois 101.1 20.5 78.1 1.29
Mike Tisdale Illinois 104.0 20.6 63.4 1.28
Trent Meacham Illinois 104.5 16.6 74.6 1.26
Luka Mirkovic Northwestern 118.5 15.4 43.4 1.25
E’Twaun Moore Purdue 97.6 25.1 84.4 1.25
Jamelle Cornley Penn State 97.2 22.5 90.7 1.16
Jeremie Simmons Ohio State 104.1 20.5 54.1 1.10
Damian Johnson Minnesota 101.4 19.3 68.1 1.08
Ralph Sampson III Minnesota 108.2 15.4 55.7 1.07
Delvon Roe Michigan State 105.7 20.2 47.6 1.05
Jarryd Cole Iowa 109.6 14.1 55.3 1.03
Durrell Summers Michigan State 101.3 21.4 56.3 0.99
Chester Frazier Illinois 101.7 13.4 85.8 0.97
Devan Dumes Indiana 99.1 25.7 54.8 0.96
Raymar Morgan Michigan State 103.4 21.4 45.3 0.92
Chris Allen Michigan State 101.2 24.5 46.0 0.91
Chris Kramer Purdue 105.3 12.7 64.4 0.87
Jon Leuer Wisconsin 97.1 24.4 59.5 0.81
Keaton Grant Purdue 97.8 17.8 69.3 0.74
Verdell Jones III Indiana 93.2 27.3 80.1 0.70
Laval Lucas-Perry Michigan 98.4 22.3 49.7 0.70
Devan Bawinkel Iowa 101.2 12.1 65.0 0.64
Nick Williams Indiana 94.6 22.1 65.5 0.59
John Shurna Northwestern 98.3 21.3 42.6 0.58
Travis Walton Michigan State 99.1 11.5 71.5 0.56
Jeremy Nash Northwestern 97.4 14.1 55.2 0.45
Danny Morrissey Penn State 98.2 14.9 46.8 0.44
Lewis Jackson Purdue 92.9 20.7 58.8 0.37
Stu Douglass Michigan 93.2 17.0 55.0 0.30
P.J. Hill Ohio State 94.6 14.4 45.4 0.26
Al Nolen Minnesota 90.7 20.1 62.2 0.21
Blake Hoffarber Minnesota 92.2 14.7 52.6 0.20
Marcus Green Purdue 92.5 15.6 40.4 0.18
Devoe Joseph Minnesota 90.9 21.6 45.1 0.17
Tom Pritchard Indiana 86.4 20.6 71.6 (0.14)
Colton Iverson Minnesota 85.0 18.6 41.1 (0.14)
Aaron Fuller Iowa 82.8 18.0 41.2 (0.24)

Your conference Player of the Year is either Evan Turner or Kalin Lucas, hinging on whether you’re a “one guy who clearly put his team on his back” or a “less dominant player who was part of a deeper/more successful team” kind of a person.  The only other plausible candidate in my book is JaJuan Johnson, if you account for his defensive value as a shot blocker.

I didn’t have time to do a complete set of all-conference picks this year.  That won’t stop me from critiquing the coaches’ and media’s picks later tonight, though.

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Posted in stats analysis | Tagged evan turner, kalin lucas, offensive ratings |

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