I’m leaving for Indy some time this afternoon. Hopefully, I’ll be posting something each night. And we’ll have open threads for as many games as MSU advances to this weekend.
For now, here’s a thread to talk about today’s events in Indy.
Discussion question: Who would you rather see advance out of the 8/9 game (noon, BTN): Minnesota or Northwestern?
P.S. I didn’t think Kalin Lucas going pro was something to be particularly concerned about, but it’s still good to hear these words:
Unlike [D.J.] Augustin, one challenge Lucas doesn’t plan to take on after his sophomore season is the NBA.
“I will be back next year,” Lucas said.
I want Minnesota to win so MSU can beat them and boost their Top50 RPI wins to 13
.
A Minnesota win gives us a better chance of getting more Big Ten teams in the tournament as well. Northwestern would not get in without beating us, and Minnesota probably needs to beat Northwestern but doesn’t need to beat us.
I also think we match up with Minnesota better. They’re like us (deep, physical, up-tempo) but less talented. NW brings more wildcards to the table (3-point shooting, 1-3-1).
WSJ on MSU’s “luck”:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123682160522003523.html
I still think our high KenPom luck rating is largely a result of the blowout losses to MD and UNC, but I don’t have the numbers to back up my assertion. And, on the other hand, we have, in fact, won nearly all our close games.
We need to be careful about how much we rely on statistics. Pomeroy ranks Kansas & West Virginia higher than us. I know Pomeroy is a genius, however sometimes his numbers are flawed. I would hardly call us lucky with the injuries and illness’ that we have gone through this year. Not to mention the NW and Penn State home games where players were hitting half court shots off the backboard. I think we match up better against Minny with are sound perimeter defense and frontcourt depth.
I think that WSJ article is bogus. Beating projected numbers doesn’t mean luck – it means the numbers were wrong and don’t account for things like handling the pressure of close late game well (i.e. Kalin being able to make free throws under pressure
).
There are factors the stats don’t account for. Luck is one of them, but it’s not the only one (see: Illinois last year, dead last in “luck” primarily because they couldn’t hit free throws at all).
This is an area ripe for exploration.
I have a theory that a high FTR is a significant asset late in close games (or in OT). Lucas’ ability to get to the line explains at least some of our success in close games this year.
Gophers up by 6 at the half–despite Coble scoring 19 points.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=290710135
Kevin Coble is the number one reason I want Minnesota to win. Minnesota really is just us but less talented.
If you are going to be in town, you should definitely check out the Pep Rally tonight at the Westin. It’s a great time.
I picked Northwestern, but I’d prefer to play Minnesota. Between Nash at the top of the zone and the three-point threats, Northwestern is dangerous. Minnesota is solid, but we do match-up well against them.
I agree you guys would match up better with Minnesota just because everything Minnesota is good at, State does better, and clearly so. Northwestern is just a pain, especially with their shooters.
I should note that Michigan and Northwestern are fairly similar in system (Michigan has Harris and Sims, who are better at creating for themselves and others, but Northwestern is a clearly better shooting team from 3 and has some actual size instead of starting four guys 6’5″ and under). Michigan of course swept Minny and Northwestern split, but their loss was when basically everyone on the team was sick. One reason I thought Northwestern was reasonably likely to win (and a good bet taking the points).
And this game is looking eerily similar to the Michigan/Minnesota game at the Barn this past weekend. Northwestern down double digits at one point but now in the lead, and Minnesota’s offense has screeched to a halt. All that’s left is a retarded time out call by Tubby.
Well, looks like you all get your wish. Should be a double-digit win to breeze into the semis unless someone on Minny goes completely berserk.
Sweet, we get Minnesota.
Next up: 11 years of basketball futility on the line.
What’s with all the gratuitous swipes at the Big 10? I haven’t seen people bashing the Big 12 this way and we have basically owned them this year. People are down on the SEC this year but I haven’t noted any mean spirited jabs at them (but then I don’t follow the press coverage of the other conferences all that closely). Our also-rans have defeated the Big East regular season champion, Duke, and UCLA. We (MSU) beat two of the 4 best teams in the Big 12 – Kansas and Texas. Illinois waxed another top Big 12 team – Missouri. Purdue lost to Oklahoma but in overtime so I think that shows them to basically be even.
I would by no means say we are as good as the ACC or Big East, but we could certainly hang with the other major conferences. Please show me how we are inferior to the PAC 10, Big 12, SEC, or any other conference out there. For that matter the Big East has some great teams but look at the bottom of their conference – they have 5 teams with efficiency margins equal to or worse than Iowa’s, and DePaul makes Indiana look good. Why do their top teams not get bashed for feasting on those patsys like we do for beating Indiana? I guess we’ll see how good we all are in the Tourney, which is the beauty of college basketball – you get to put up or shut up in the tournament at the end of the year.
Darn it, KU just lost to Baylor, so OU’s road to a 1 seed just got easier.
Eh – OU still could go down to Missouri or Texas.
Mark: it’s one part carryover from football season (doing poorly there makes it easier to jump on the Big Ten-bashing bandwagon), one part nobody in SEC country (except Kentucky and maybe Tennessee) caring at all about basketball, one part East Coast bias (so nobody even pays attention to the Pac-10 enough to bash them), and four parts “first team to 50 wins” (never mind that it’s because of patience on offense and good defense, or that St. John’s just put up a whopping 10 in the first half yesterday).
Anyone else happy that UM is not in our half of the bracket? Sims is looking unstoppable.
Only at the half, but I was expecting a bit more out of Iowa.
At least we don’t have to face Coble hitting those crazy threes.
Just so long as we don’t come out overconfident against Minny. The advantage of facing NW would have been that they beat us once so we’d be less likely to take the win for granted.
Michigan is absolutely rolling right now. Iowa seemed to have closed the season with some competitive games, so I am fairly surprised.
I agree with Mark about coming out sluggish against Minnesota. We need to come out aggressive.
I continue to blame Wisconsin for the criticsm that the B10 receives. They are always an undertalented team (that is admittedly very well-coached) that people perceive as muscling/thugging their way to 20 wins every year, only to get upset in the tourney. Someone told me that in the Bo Ryan era, they have never defeated a higher seed in the NCAA tourney. There’s no crime in that, it’s just that their lack of overall talent catches up with them eventually.
Also, the Big 12 is a joke. Top to bottom this conference has very little going for it, other than Blake Griffin and some decent young players at KU. I want Oklahoma to get a 1 seed, and want them to be the #1 in our region with us as the #2.
Congrats to Michigan. Are they in, or do they still need to beat the Illini?
I’d say in. I’d be shocked if they weren’t in.
Michigan’s gotta be in now. Congratulations to them.
If we’re not in now, we’re sending Robert Traylor to eat the selection committee.
Yinka, well done LOL!
Pitt is going to lose to West Virginia. Boosh.
…. and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma. Wow.
With OU and Pitt going down, is the midwest 1 seed up for grabs if MSU wins out?
I don’t know that we’d get the Midwest if we move up to a #1, Seer – if we’re fourth behind UNC, UConn, and Louisville we’re stuck heading out west anyway. We’d have to move up to #3 overall in order to get the Midwest, but that’s possible – I’m not convinced Louisville’s profile is as good as ours at the moment, but if they win the Big East tourney it will at least be debatable. A bigger concern might be, can Pitt stay ahead of us even if we win out? I think our arguments for a #1 (assuming that we win out; if we don’t, this is likely moot) are probably better than Louisville’s, but with Pitt at the moment it’s extremely close (we have a better top 50 record, but two more sub-50 losses). Picking up three more top 50 wins en route to a title would probably give us the edge, but I’m not sure.
It seems to me that we really want to end up either #3 or #5 overall. If we’re #3, we get a #1 and the Dayton-Indy path. If we’re #4, we go out west (and may even get bumped to Minneapolis in the first round if Louisville and Pitt are both ahead of us, though that’s unlikely). #5, we would be #2 in the Midwest opposite someone other than UNC and UConn (who I assume will be #1 and 2 overall, playing in Memphis and Boston), playing in either Dayton or Minneapolis in the first round.
Agree with Dan 1000% on all points.
And now UConn’s going to the wire (actually, well past the wire – they’re about to start the fourth OT) against Syracuse. Apparently no one wants a 1 seed.
6OT! This is the craziest game I’ve ever seen.
This may belong in the other thread since it’s today now, but I want to have proof that I watched the 6OT game to the end.
My thoughts: if MSU missed lay ups, put backs and dunks like Syracuse did tonight he’d have a darn stroke. Exciting game, but only because Syracuse needed 5 OTs to play halfway decent on offense.
nobody wants to be placed in 1 seed? OU, Pitt, UConn all out…
Good for WVU! Can’t believe syracuse can play tomorrow (oops, today again) after 6OT.