Going into NCAA Tournament play, our starting lineup looks like it may finally be completely healthy. Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, Raymar Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Goran Suton should all be able to play 25-30 minutes per game at near 100%. (Roe is perhaps the exception to this statement, but he’s certainly as ready to contribute effective minutes as he has been all season.)
That’s reason for optimism, as there have been only a few stretches of games when all five of those players have been fully available. And we’ve been pretty good in those stretches.
The concern is what the guys coming off the bench will be able to contribute in any given game. In particular, Chris Allen and/or Durrell Summers will need to play 20+ minutes per game as the first reserve options when the starters rotate out. Allen has been erratic all year, mixing one or two solid games at a time with stretches of games in which he seems to be completely off kilter offensively.
Summers, meanwhile, became a major contributor when Morgan had to sit out with pneumonia, scoring more than 20 points in 3 games of a 4-game stretch at one point. More recently, though, Summer’s scoring touch has disappeared completely.
Here are Allen’s and Summer’s key stats over the last 10 games:
| Allen | Summers | |
| Mins/G | 18.4 | 20.9 |
| Pts/G | 8.2 | 4.7 |
| 2pt% | 48.3 | 35.7 |
| 3pt% | 33.3 | 16.7 |
| FT% | 81.8 | 62.5 |
| Reb/G | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Ast/G | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| TO/G | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Summers’ numbers are abysmal. His 3-point stroke has gone missing, and there haven’t been many opportunities for him to score in transition. The only thing he’s continued to bring to the table is the ability to rebound from the perimeter.
Allen’s stats actually look pretty good on a per-game-average basis–although they’re boosted somewhat by a 16-point performance in the home game against Indiana that began the 10-game stretch. His shooting numbers are acceptable, his passing ability has been a factor in flashes, and–in my subjective view–he’s become a pretty solid man-to-man defender.
So which player do you prefer to see as the first player off the bench? Do you continue to give Summers major minutes, hoping he can regain mid-conference-season form, giving the team a third 20-point scoring possibility to go with Lucas and Morgan? Or do you give Allen the minutes, recognizing that he’s likely to give you a brief flash of scoring in each game, but probably isn’t going to be a game-changer?
The numbers point toward Allen, but his 2-11 shooting performance (0-6 from beyond the arc) against Ohio State in Indy remains fresh in our minds. The third option, for which we don’t have much data, is Korie Lucious. He was great in the Ohio State game, but he makes us really small on the perimeter and that game was the first time he’s played more than 15 minutes in a game as a collegiate player. Assuming, he’s going to play 5-10 minutes at point guard when Lucas is out of the game, it’s hard to see him playing another 10-15 minutes on the wing.
Let’s hear it: Who should Tom Izzo point to when he makes his first substitution tomorrow night? (And no fair saying Draymond Green.)
Izzo has said several times this week that Chris Allen has been having the best practices of his career recently. I don’t know about who’ll be the first guy off the bench, but I’d say the evidence suggests that Allen is most likely to click. I’m guessing Izzo’s approach will remain the same: plan on playing both Allen and Summers equally, but ride the hot hand when it appears.
If things go well, the tournament will last long enough for them both to show their A-game before it’s over.
Allen. He’s able to be that spot up type shooter we need on the perimeter. Obviously if he’s not hitting any of his shots, you look elsewhere. But Summers has been awful as of late, looking completely off-sync offensively.
Allen’s looked better to me lately with just looking for his shot and not looking totally out of sync on offense. He’s also minimized his Raymar in 2007-08-esque traveling problems.
I think it’s a question of how we want to turn the ball over: have Allen dribble off his leg/drive into traffic or have Summers get called for an offensive foul. The former is more likely to lead to a fast break the other way, but the latter will put the opposing team in the bonus quicker. It’s a conundrum, really.
I like Allen based on the numbers. As others have noted his D has improved quite a bit. With his athleticism, Summers should be the better defender but at this point I’m not sure he brings anything more to the table on that end than Allen. Allen is a streaky shooter but when he is on he really gives us a lift offensively.
Not sure what happened to Summers – he looked unstoppable during the middle of the Big 10 season, and without his production we would not have won the league outright, but his game has fallen off a cliff since then. Lucious makes us small on the perimeter but has shown a fealess shooting touch when he is in there – I’d call him option number 2 off the bench if Summers can’t get it going.
Allen is the better spot up shooter, particularly if Summers’ slump continues, but Summers is the better rebounder and can give you quality minutes at the three, posing more match up problems for the other team than can Allen, who is a more classic 2 guard. I think the choice between them really depends on matchups, and game situations. Having said that, If you need outside shooting and quick points, you go with Allen, unless he is having one of his stone-cold days.
The odd thing is that, up until this recent slump, I would have said Summers is the more consistent shooter.
Career 3-point shooting %:
Summers: 44.0%
Allen: 34.5%
Note: Allen’s taken roughly twice the number of 3-point shots as Summers has during their careers to date. 243 vs. 116.
Hmm. Before seeing any numbers, I would’ve said Summers easily.
This makes it seem like Allen is the better option though. However, I think your earlier observation about Allen being unable to shoot himself out of a slump makes me think if Allen is off that Summers should come in right away.
For Robert Morris let’s treat Summers, Allen and Lucious equally. We don’t need Summers for his rebounding tonight, but we do need Allen to get his confidence up (please take at least 7 3′s!) if we want to advance past the first two rounds.
I would like to get Lucious some additional minutes at the expense of Summers, unless he is hot, then let’s ride him. We just need one of those three as a serious threat from 3pt land to go along with Lucas and Suton and we will be fine.
One of our strengths is our depth and I think we need to lean on it more – more all out for less minutes.
I don’t want to overlook R.M, but I do think today is the day Green, and maybe even Gray, goes off and we can try some things without overworking the starters.
Ok, snarky comment out of the way.
Summers always struck me as an aggressive help defender, but he has a tendency to get lost trying to re-locate his man, leaving him with an open look.
Allen, on the other hand is better defender on the ball, but he doesn’t have the lateral quickness Summers has to get through screens.
Allen has been better lately on the offensive end, and Summers’ rebounding ability won’t be as critical (although we may not get that 50% OffReb level you’re after, kj).
These are just my observations, but with RM being a proficient 3-point team, and the need to get Allen going as a consistent 3-point threat, he should probably get the minutes.