Monday night, 9:21. Ford Field, Detroit. CBS.
This has become a routine for me now: Overanalyzing the statistical profiles of #1 seeds we’re about to play and convincing myself we’re massive underdogs. I’m going to try to keep this preview short, to avoid that danger (and because I need to get some sleep tonight).
| Category | MSU Off | Nat Rk | UNC Def | Nat Rk | |
| Adj Eff | 115.4 | 18 | 90.0 | 16 | |
| TO% | 20.5 | 184 | 20.2 | 174 | |
| eFG% | 49.9 | 137 | 46.6 | 62 | |
| FTR | 40.7 | 56 | 24.7 | 5 | |
| OffReb% | 40.9 | 5 | 31.6 | 118 | |
| Category | UNC Off | Nat Rk | MSU Def | Nat Rk | |
| Adj Eff | 123.7 | 1 | 88.0 | 8 | |
| TO% | 16.7 | 13 | 20.3 | 171 | |
| eFG% | 52.9 | 43 | 47.2 | 81 | |
| FTR | 39.1 | 98 | 35.6 | 158 | |
| OffReb% | 39.2 | 17 | 27.4 | 11 | |
Unlike our previous two opponents, the scary half of North Carolina’s profile is the offensive side. This team takes care of the ball, shoots the ball very efficiently (51.1/38.4/75.8) and crashes the glass almost as well as we do. And they do it all at a breakneck pace (adjusted tempo=73.8).
I’m not going to run down UNC’s playing rotation in detail (partly because the numbers are so imposing). We know all about their two incomparable leaders: Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. And Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Bobby Frasor can all play a little bit, too. When this team is playing to its potential, it’s more like watching an NBA team than a college team: Everybody can knock down perimeter shots and make plays going toward the basket. They’re the one team in the tournament field that has the ability to turn the scoring switch on seemingly at will.
At the risk of sounding like Dan Patrick, you can’t stop them, you can only hope to contain them. My hunch is we’re going to have to play them straight up and hope that Kalin Lucas and Goran Suton are good enough at this point to go toe to toe with Lawson and Hansborough. The rest of the defense can’t afford to sag off the other UNC players to help out on the two stars. Once Ellington and Green get going, things really start to fall apart for the defense. Assuming Walton doesn’t guard Lawson, he may be able to take one of those two guys out of the game on offense.
Playing them straight up should have the added advantage of keeping us in good rebounding position. Our only potential defensive advantage on paper is rebounding. If we can limit the Tar Heels to one shot per possession, that would go a long ways to giving us a shot at outscoring them.
And outscoring them is what we will need to do. In UNC’s four losses this season (Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, Florida State), the Tar Heels still managed to stay above 1.00 points per possession. (They didn’t have a single outing below that threshold all season.) But they allowed their opponents to score an average of 1.10 points per possession in those games.
On paper, UNC doesn’t look like they’re well positioned to take advantage of our occasional turnover issues. I’m not so sure, though. Athletic, man-to-man teams are exactly the kind of opponent our turnover issues have cropped up against this season. We’ll see if this team has turned the page for good on those issues. If UNC comes out overplaying on the perimeter, we have to use the pressure against them to create points going toward the basket.
Beyond that, we’re going to need to crash the glass with abandon (it’s our single trump card on both ends of the court) and knock down whatever good 3-point looks we get. All four of the teams that have beaten UNC this year shot at least 37.5% from 3-point range in doing so.
North Carolina’s only outstanding statistical factor on defense is free throw rate. With their across-the-board athleticism, the Tar Heels don’t end up in positions requiring them to foul with much frequency. If, however, we can somehow get Hanbrough to pick up a couple early fouls, that’d be helpful. He ended up with 4 fouls in 3 of their 4 losses. Raymar Morgan’s newfound offensive confidence could be an asset in that department, since Hansbrough doesn’t block a lot of shots.
In terms of pace, MSU is talking a lot about beating UNC at its own game by pushing the ball on offense. In reality, I think they’re going to have to walk a very fine line. They certainly need to take whatever fast break opportunities are there for high-percentage shots. But they can’t make bad decisions with the ball that will allow Lawson to work his magic going the other way. There’s a temptation to say an up-tempo game favors us because of our depth (10-player rotation vs. 7-player rotation, but you’re playing with fire if you push that line of thinking past a certain point. Lucas, Walton, and Lucious have to make smart decisions with the ball for 40 minutes.
In short, the players need to do everything they didn’t do the last time these two teams met in this location. In the recap of that game, I concluded with the following:
The game was obviously a major disappointment, both in terms of on-court performance and the crowd environment. We can only hope the team has now hit rock bottom; there’s no place to go but up.
This team has climbed a long, long way up since that game–farther up than any of us could have hoped. The only question that remains: Can they ascend all the way to the peak of the college basketball mountain?
My guess is there aren’t going to be any shortcuts to get to that peak. As brilliant as Tom Izzo has been in the last two games, I just don’t see a strategic advantage in this game. We’re simply going to have to outplay them–and even that may not be enough.
There you go, I think I just convinced myself we’re massive underdogs. So we’ll end there, and hope that the team proves me wrong one more time.
P.S. Kenpom predicts an 80-77 UNC win in a 74-possession game. For what it’s worth, that’s a considerably tighter predicted margin than the 7.5-point spread the guys in Vegas have posted.
It’s been amazing to me MSU got to this point. I still feel it was a year ahead of schedule. No matter what happens this last game, I’m going to enjoy having followed this season and the growth of this team for a very long time.
I think you are spot on. There are no real chinks in the armor to exploit. Can’t play the depth card against a team that already likes to run. Can’t slow down the PG who runs like a bullet. Can’t foul the PF who shoots 80% FTs. Can’t sag on the wings who can shoot the 3, can’t pressure too hard the same who can slash to the basket all the same. It’s going to be about playing straight up and digging in one last time into that well of desire they’ve dug into so often this last month. Maybe the one advantage MSU has is having become used to going for broke, whereas UNC hasn’t played a close game in weeks. And as you quoted previously, “freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.” I feel free.
Go State.
David v. Goliath!
I can’t imagine being a player or Izzo right now. Let’s climb the ladder.
KJ, your commentary has been a part of this magical season. I’m going to miss SW next year.
[...] National Championship Game Preview (SpartansWeblog.com) [...]
Maybe someone can answer this question for me – I haven’t seen a discussion of this topic anywhere: Has there ever been a team that has knocked off THREE #1 seeds in the NCAA tourney?
MSU has knocked off Louisville and UConn, and if our boys beat UNC they will have beaten 3 out of 4 #1 seeds. The only #1 seed they have not played is Pitt. Beating three different top-seeded teams would not be possible for a #1 seed to accomplish since a #1 seed would never have a chance to play 3 other #1 seeds. The most a #1 seeded team could knock is two other #1 seeds. So that means only an underdog would have a chance to do it, and it would also only happen if the stars were aligned just right so that the underdog happened to meet up with #1 seeds repeatedly during the tournament.
Will MSU be the first team ever to do it if we win tonight?
As a Buckeye fan in Buffalo; Good luck tonight. It has been a pleasure watching this MSU team; real intensity and great coaching. Play well and do the Big 10 proud.
@ Mark
Arizona in 1997 did it.
Ok, thanks for the quick response. Much appreciated.
So is that the only example or is AZ just the most recent example? I must say I’m a little surprised anyone has done it before, it’s probably quite rare for any one team to PLAY 3 #1 seeds, much less beat all of them.
KJ — One intangible is Williams’ history of choking in big games. Despite the parade of future NBA players he has had at UNC and Kansas, he has mostly lost these kind of games. (Exhibit A was the semi final last year, in which UNC played really badly and elt a clearly inferior Kansas team win).
Otherwise, you are right — these guys look awfully good.
UNC certainly looks like the best team in the country. No one has really challenged them all tournament long. You know Hansbrough is hungry – he passed up the NBA last year for another shot at this game. I’m sure his team will want to send him out a winner, and when UNC is really on their game they are very scary. I know Villanova made a run around halftime to get back in the game but I never really got the sense that UNC was in jeopardy. They just needed to exert a little effort whenever they felt like it to push the lead back up to double digits. They are scary good on offense and better than people think in D. I’m surprised at how lackluster their defensive rebounding is – they rebound really well on offense but on D they are kind of ordinary. Sending four to the boards on offense is pretty risky though, because if you don’t get the rebound they’re off and running for easy points.
We absolutely have to hold onto the ball in this one. As KJ noted, they are the type of team we sometimes have TO issues against – and we hemmorrhaged them in the first game. We need to be more careful this time around. It would be nice to keep Suton on the floor for most of the game – i.e. keep him out of foul trouble. After the way he handled Aldrich and Gibson, I think he is capable of keeping Hansbrough somewhat in check, but only if he avoids foul trouble. It may be worth seeing if Roe can slow Hansbrough down just to keep Suton from picking up cheapies against him. We’ll need his offense (we’ll need everyone’s offense to score with them).
The things going in our favor in this game over last:
1) We are playing much better D than we were earlier this year. In the pre-Big 10 season we were pretty mediocre on D but we are very good now.
2) We are deeper – Lucious, Green, and Roe are all capable of providing more and better minutes than they were last time we played UNC, plus we have Suton. our front court should also be fresh since none of them played major minutes against UConn due to foul trouble.
3) The environment will be much more animated than last game – I know it wasn’t great in the first one but this is the NCAA title game so the arena will be full and will mostly be screaming their heads off for us.
I’ve been thinking each team we played since KU might be the end of the road. If UNC plays up to their potential we are probably sunk. MSU has been proving me wrong so far, so hopefully they can do it again. I’ll be surprised if we don’t give them a game though – and if it’s close at the end who knows? We’ve played very well down the stretch in tight games this year so maybe we can sneak away with a victory if we’re still there at the end. It will take our best effort just to hang in there and have a shot though.
I think our best chance to pull off the upset will come as a result of playing stifling defense from the outset. We need to force Carolina into taking some bad shots early to get into their heads. They have an awful lot of pressure on them, coming in as heavy favorites, and if we can keep them off balance throughout the game, but especially in the first four minutes, we would gain a huge emotional advantage. This is a game that will be fueled by emotion as long as we can hang close or get a lead. The crowd and positive vibes coming from a nation pulling for the underdogs is the intangible. Here’s hoping our guys make it one for the ages.
DP99, i thought as you stated, that one of the intangible advantages we
have is winning close games at the end. This team reminds me of the Ohio state nc football team that won 7 or 8 games by less than a touchdown.
somehow, someway this year we seem to have harnessed the abilities to 1. get key defensive stops late in the game (something the Ager, Brown, Davis team couldn’t do) and 2. somehow still manage to score at the end of the game in various ways: off missed shots w offensive rebounding, dribble drive penetration, great execution of BLOB and SLOB
plays, and free throws (though only Lucas and Suton are as lock down as past MSU free throw aces like Neitzel).
One of the keys will be still being in the game the last 2-4 minutes!
Another key : KJ has made the point about the contribution of all 3 freshmen. My son who is a 4 year varsity letter earner in cross country has often said that he enjoyed the season most as a freshman, not knowing what to expect and enjoying all of it. The responsibility of scoring for your team and leading as a two-time captain are great (for him) but take away from your enjoyment and just living in each meet. He thinks the lack of experience sometimes helps freshmen (especially as we have a strong MSU team to support them).
It appears that the Spartans will fast-break if they can, and if they can’t, make UNC play half-court defense for 35 seconds. The aim will be to outrun the Tar Heels, gas them in the second half (just like Louisville and Connecticut). It’s going to be David vs. Goliath, and Goliath chooses weapons.
The Walton-on-Ellington assignment may be part of this strategy: accept that Lawson is going to get his 20, but keep the score close by containing Elllington and hope that at the end of the game Lawson and the rest are tired and miss some shots.
It can work if the Spartans don’t fall behind big.
This is National Championship game, man. And surely mental things would play a big part in this kind of games, look at what will happen at the floor. One favorite thing for us is that the pressure is on them, and we just need to compete in the first five minutes, to believe, and win them from them on! Go Spartan!
Arizona’s the only one to beat three #1 seeds before, Mark from GR.
Mark in DC: I suspect the reason their defensive rebounding is somewhat weaker is because of their fast break. If you’re sending guys down court to run the break, you’re not sending them to the glass.
It’s going to take a near-perfect game. There isn’t an obvious weakness like Louisville’s half-court execution or UConn’s depth issues and vulnerability to the fast break; we’re going to simply have to out-execute them, and that’s going to be a tall order. We absolutely have to cut down on the turnovers (particularly steals) to win, and we’re going to need to hit some perimeter shots. Today would be a good day to get Good Allen instead of Brick-Laying Allen.
@ SpartanDan,
The thing that worries me is that if you are a good offensive rebounding team you absolutely can be a good defensive rebounding team – they have it in them, they just don’t emphasize it. I hope they keep not emphasizing it in this game. It’s a little surprising that they don’t make more of a point of defensive rebounding though – grabbing those boards would be a good way for them to start their break. Plus, you would think most teams they play would be so scared of their break that they would drop everyone back rather than crash the offensive glass. If anything, that should lead to an inflated defensive rebounding percentage. That doesn’t seem to be happening though.
I’m really surprised they don’t force more turnovers just based on the number they forced against us the first time around.
Seems it’s a balance there, Mark – put more emphasis on getting the boards, and you don’t have anyone left to lead the break. I don’t claim to know where the balance is, but my guess is it’s a conscious choice to let a couple guys leak out and be ready to run the break rather than crashing the boards. Similarly, if you’re facing them, the best way to disrupt their break may be to make sure they don’t get to start it by getting the rebound yourself – Lawson is fast enough that it’s difficult to stop him if you let him get rolling at all, so dropping everyone back isn’t always that effective anyway, and you may as well take a chance on getting the rebound.
364 days of the year I wouldn’t say this, but Pomeroy can cram it with walnuts. (Really, I’m very sorry. You’re a wizard and above us all.)
MSU has been a statistical underdog in their past four games — KU, Louisville, UConn, and now UNC. FWIW, being a four, three, two-point dog hasn’t meant much this tournament.*
* – Obviously.
If we’re hitting the offensive glass hard enough, it will slow down their break and turn UNC into a half-court team. And we’ll still have to rely on a stifling man-to-man defense to stop penetration. It’s about the only way we can pull this off, basically, and play a perfect game.
Fortunately, those are two things we do very well. Survive the first few minutes and don’t get down double digits early. Calm the nerves, then play your game.
I’m so excited yet I can hardly watch.
Carolina is undefeated when Ellington shoots 50% or better. He averages just under 12 attempts per game.
Limit the turnovers, hit the glass, stout defense. Just have to hope they don’t shoot lights out from beyond the arc. I remember last game they were nailing NBA-caliber threes.
Toughness. Does UNC have enough? Louisville and UConn both said they were surprised and thrown off by MSU’s physicality. They both faded down the stretch. One of the UNC players was quoted after the Nova game saying their legs were tired. This evidence suggests that MSU’s toughness might give the heels some problems.
@ Dan
I guess it could also be that teams emphasize offensive boards after they fall behind (which most UNC opponents usually do at some point) – it’s a desperate attempt to generate some offense to catch back up.
go msu !!!!!!!!!
defence wins championships
One area here we haven’t looked at is the motivation factor. On one hand, you have UNC who is no doubt internally motivated…..They have been since last Spring’s loss to Kansas to come back and win a Championship. Hansborough and others have purposely stuck around for this one game. They have been on a mission all year long.
On the other hand, you have MSU who has been on a mission to find themselves all year. They have managed to do it in the tournament and are being lifted by a city and state in need of a lift. Of course, they also have Izzo, Magic and the other past players that have participated in this ride. They will have the overwhelming number of fans at Ford Field pulling for them.
So the question is, does the external motivation carry Sparty far enough to keep them in the game, keep it close and buoy the team’s energy to keep it physical throughout the game and eventually wear down UNC and “crack” their spirit or does the intenral drive and motiviation on UNC’s side keep them focused on their goal throughout the entire game?
What a test of wills and spirit! GO GREEN!!!!!