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Two very encouraging graphs

Posted in basketball, msu, stats analysis on December 27, 2007 | 4 Comments »

So we all remember how unbelievably bad our Spartans were at holding on to the ball last season. They gave the ball up on 26.0% of offensive possessions in conference play–worst among any major conference team in either 2006 or 2007. This deficiency was the one thing that held MSU back from being a truly elite offensive team, as they were pretty good at shooting the ball and very good and rebounding it.

Through the first five games of the season, this propensity to cough the ball up didn’t appear to have resolved itself over the offseason. MSU put up offensive TO percentages over 23.0% in four of their first five contests. Since then, I’ve noted that their dismal ranking in this category has slowly improved. So I thought I’d look at the trend in MSU’s offensive TO% over the nonconference season:

msu off to% dec27

As you can see, their performance has clearly improved since the first five games. They’ve kept their offensive TO% under 21.0% in 6 of the subsequent 7 games–including the microscopic 8.8% vs. Texas. (Note to self: Figure out why my calculations–which arrived at 10.4% for the Texas game–differ slightly from kenpom’s.) For the season, MSU’s offensive TO% now stands at 20.7%, good for 106th in the nation (in roughly the top 3rd of Division 1 teams).

Who, in particular, has reduced their turnovers? Basically everyone. But here are the biggest improvements:

  • Gray: 2.8 TO/G in the first five games; 1.1 TO/G in the last seven games
  • Lucas: 2.6; 1.6
  • Suton: 2.0; 1.1
  • Walton: 2.0; 1.4
  • Summers: 1.6; 1.0

(Sorry to resort to conventional stats–but calculating individual tempo-free stats on a game-by-game basis is a bit too arduous.)

So both the primary ball-handlers on the perimeter (Lucas/Walton) and both the scoring threats on the inside (Suton/Gray) have improved substantially. Players are getting comfortable in their roles and running the offense the way Izzo has designed it. (The one guy who’s still turning it over pretty frequently is Raymar Morgan–2.4 TO/G in both sets of games. Giving everything else he’s doing, though, I think we can live with this.)

A piece of this trend may be due to the opponents they’ve played. Missouri is very good at creating turnovers; NC State is not good at all. But the trend is too distinct not to represent real progress. If MSU can maintain a TO% of 20.0% rather than 25.0%, that’s an extra 3.5 scoring opportunites per game in a 70-possession game, which translates to 4-5 points the way MSU shoots and rebounds. That’s the difference between a good team and a great one.

While I had the Excel template set up, I thought I’d go ahead and look at defensive TO%, too. I didn’t expect the results to be nearly as dramatic–but they are:

msu def to% dec27

Historically, MSU has not created a lot of turnovers. Izzo wants them to play solid man-to-man defense, force a tough shot, and get the rebound. Through the first five games, MSU was not creating a lot of turnovers. Their defensive TO% was below 20.0% in all five games. In the following seven games, they’ve been above 20.0% five times–including two games at 30.0% or above.

Part of this trend is simply a matter of how few turnovers they created in the first five games (sort of like bowling a bad score the first time out to increase your handicap). And there aren’t any IPFWs or San Jose States left on the schedule. But the Spartans are showing the ability to use their depth and quickness to harass the other team into giving the ball up. These two players, in particular, have stepped it up on defense:

  • Walton: 0.2 steals/G in the first five games; 1.6 steals/G in the last seven
  • Morgan: 0.4; 1.3

If MSU can sustain both these trends, they are going to be extremely formidable in conference play and beyond. There are few teams in the country that can keep up with MSU if the Spartans are taking shots on 80%+ of their possessions and grabbing 40%+ of the shots they miss. And a hounding perimeter defense that creates turnovers and wears down the opposition could be the frosting on the cake.

Bonus Random Stat: MSU currently ranks dead last in the nation (341st) in 3-point attempts as a percentage of FG attempts. Notably, UNC is also in the bottom ten. The Spartans and Tar Heels prove you don’t have to jack up a lot of 3-pointers to have a high-powered offense. The the two teams rank 7th and 3rd, respectively, in kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.

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Post-holiday links

Posted in basketball, big ten, links, msu on December 27, 2007 |

Jay Bilas on MSU and Izzo:

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo loves to say that players play, but tough players win. Well, coaches coach, but prepared coaches win, too. While so many coaches do a great job of preparing their teams, it is futile to try to suggest that one guy is the best. But it is impossible to refute that Izzo is one of the most prepared. If you watched the set plays and actions that Izzo ran against Texas’ zone and box-and-one defenses, you saw a well-drilled and well-organized Spartans team. Some may just have seen the final lob look to Marquise Gray on one of Izzo’s sets in the second half, but it was all set up by ball reversal, Drew Neitzel running off a baseline double screen and taking a defender with him, and the middle man being left to guard a flash and a slip. It was beautiful. Michigan State is the real thing this season. The Spartans can be beaten, but they have good talent, they score easier baskets and they defend the elbow and block well. Michigan State can beat anyone out there. And most of it is because of Izzo.

You can watch the video clip of the play Bilas is describing; scroll down to the second video screen in the ESPN.com weekly notebook.

Kalin Lucas is the Rivals.com freshman of the week.

Inside the Hall (an IU blog) is previewing all of the Big Ten basketball teams, from the bottom up. Here’s the Michigan preview.

Check out the College Basketball Chronotope. It’s an IU blog, but his Big Ten power poll of a week ago liked MSU as the #1 team in the conference (by a hair). His tempo-free player ratings judged our own Mr. Suton as the most effective player in the conference, as of two weeks ago.

Luke Winn of SI.com has an interesting piece up on the invention of the breakaway rim. The spring used in the rim was inspired by a similar spring in a John Deere cultivator.

One more Luke Winn link: Mr. Winn moves MSU up to #4 in his power rankings (vs. #7 in the current polls).  He notes that MSU’s offensive rebounding prowess is particularly encouraging in light of the fact that both of MSU’s recent first-round NCAA tournament exits were in years when MSU’s offensive rebounding percentage was mediocre (2006: 33.5%, 2004: 30.5%).  Future project: Determine whether good offensive rebounding makes a team less susceptible to being upset–the theory being that rebounding is less streaky than shooting is.

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A landmark link

Posted in basketball, links, msu on December 24, 2007 | 3 Comments »

The MSNBC Beyond the Arc blog asserts that MSU has vindicated itself from the Grand Valley loss with the Texas win and is now a clear national title contender (along with UCLA and Texas, with whom MSU is now caught in an infinite transitive property-defying superiority loop).

I’ve broken my self-imposed holiday blogging moratorium to post this, as Beyond the Arc blogger Mike Miller was kind enought to link to my game recap.  This is the first appearance of the Spartans Weblog in the mainstream media.  It’s a Christmas miracle!

Of additional note: Mr. Miller points out that, despite Izzo’s reputation for being a defensive-minded coach, MSU has actually been better on the offensive end than the defensive end the last several years.  I’d argue this team is more Izzoesque than the 2004-2006 teams, though, as the biggest factor in their offensive aptitude has been offensive rebounding–which, even more than lockdown defense, is the calling card of great Izzo teams.

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Texas Game Recap (12/22/07)

Posted in basketball, game recap, msu on December 23, 2007 | 5 Comments »

MSU beats Texas 78-72 in a game that was not as close as the score would indicate.  I just wrapped up watching the game on DVR (it’s midnight) so I’m going to go rapid-fire bullet-style on the recap.  Box score here.

  • I was surprised when I pulled up the box score and calculated this was only a 67-possession game.  MSU definitely pushed the ball on offense.  I think the pace wasn’t higher because MSU forced Texas to work for their shots.  But I’m definitely chalking up my prediction that MSU would push the ball on offense as a success.
  • And the man who did most of the pushing was Kalin Lucas.  Breakout game.  18 points (although he did take 18 shots to score those points); 6 asssists vs. only 1 turnover.  Lucas is going to be awfully good if he can hit the outside shot consistently, as he did early tonight.
  • Only 7 turnovers!  That’s a TO% of just 10.4%.  There’s no limit how far this team can go if they hold on to the ball like they did tonight.
  • My other prediction–that defensive rebounding would be the key–didn’t pan out.  The Spartans gathered a pretty average 66.7% (28 of 42) of defensive rebounding opportunities.
  • The key turned out to be perimeter defense.  The Spartan guards did an excellent job switching and hounding the Longhorns on the perimeter.  Augustine is tremendously quick, but the MSU guards managed to stay in front of him most of the game and force difficult shots (6-17 on FGs).  And they stuck with Abrams as best they could.  He finished 6-15 on 3-pointers.  Thankfully, he didn’t get hot until the last minute, when he hit four of those 3-pointers to give us Spartan fans a few moments of anxiety.
  • To emphasize that last point, MSU held arguably the best offensive team in the country to 40.6% shooting on 2-pointers and 37.9% (11-29) shooting on 3-pointers.  Remove Abrams’ last-minute barage and that second number drops dramatically.  The relatively small number of made baskets prevented Texas from getting into their zone (did you catch the box-and-one they ran against Neizel?).
  • Tonight’s small gripe (let’s just ignore the free throw woes in the last two minutes, OK?): Somone needs to teach Marquise Gray how to put the ball up more quickly when he’s right in front of the rim.  He had his shot blocked 3 or 4 times as he seemed to be gathering the ball for a dunk.  Suton’s quick layups aren’t the stuff of highlight reels, but are much more effective.
  • Finally, Raymar Morgan played a tremendous all-around game tonight.  18 points on 11 FG attempts.  4 assists, 2 steals, and 3 fantastic blocks. 

An early Christmas gift for Spartan Nation.  This game will be huge when it comes to securing a #1 or #2 seed for the Big Dance.

No further posting until Wedensday or Thursday.  Next game is Wisconsin-Green Bay next Saturday.  Merry Christmas, all.

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Pregame Reading

Posted in basketball, big ten, links, msu on December 22, 2007 | 3 Comments »

ESPN.com’s Andy Glockner points out Texas’ newfound offensive balance and maintained proficiency with Kevin Durant out of the equation, using tempo-free stats to make his case. Sound familiar?

I’m told Burnt Orange Nation will have a game preview up later and it may include a reference to my game preview. So check that out later this afternoon. (Their blog has roughly 15 times the traffic of mine, so we needed a higher percentage of click-throughs on this end to equalize the traffic. Show ‘em how Internet-savvy we Spartans are!)

UPDATE: The Burnt Orange Nation preview is up.  They think Izzo will try to slow the game down–the opposite of my suggested strategy.  Being relatively new at this, I’ve decided against offering up a Michigan-cherries-vs.-Texas-BBQ bet based on the number of possessions in the game.

Big Ten Chronicle has (1) a rundown of today’s nationally-televised Big Ten games, (2) a recap of Illinois’ loss to Miami-Ohio Thursday night, and (3) a “where are they now” feature on Shawn Respert.

One-time-Wolverine-to-be and briefly-a-Wildcat Alex Legion is now a will-be-in-a-year Illini (what’s the singular of Illini? Illinus?)

Programming note: Due to an unfortunate scheduling conflict with a family holiday gathering (“Humbug,” I say), I will be viewing tonight’s game on a tape delayed basis. So the game recap won’t be up until very late tonight or tomorrow. In the meantime, feel free to share your own comments on the game under this post.

GO GREEN!

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Texas Preview

Posted in basketball, game preview, msu on December 21, 2007 | 2 Comments »

6:30 Saturday. The Palace of Auburn Hills. ESPN2.

The Longhorns are undefeated at 10-0. They are ranked #4 in the AP poll and #5 in the coaches’ poll. Arguably, they should be ranked even higher, given that that they have two of the most impressive victories in all of college basketball this season–winning on the road vs. #8 UCLA and on a neutral court vs. #12 Tennessee.

Texas holds a 2-1 all-time series lead over MSU, but MSU won the last one. They triumphed 63-61 at Madison Square Garden last season on Drew Neitzel’s last-second runner. In the previous meeting, Texas eliminated MSU in the Elite Eight round of the 2003 NCAA tournament.

On to the tempo-free stats. I’ll try to be marginally more structured in my approach to this game preview.

When Texas Has the Ball

Let’s not mince words here: Texas is scary good on offense. Kenpom.com ranks them #1 in all the land in offensive efficiency. This is no small feat for a team that lost one of the all-time great offensive talents to the NBA during the offseason. But Mr. Durant’s departure appears to have left an extremely balanced attack. Their five starters average between 9.5 and 19.9 points per game, and all five rate in the top 400 nationally in Kenpom.com’s individual offensive rating stat.

Let me be more specific about what the Longhorns do well on offense: Everything.

  • They simply don’t turn the ball over–ranking #1 in the nation in offensive TO% at 14.2%.
  • So they get to take a lot of shots, a very high percentage of which they make. 2-point %: 53.6. 3-point %: 42.2%.
  • And when they do miss, they’re pretty good at getting second chances. Their offensive rebounding percentage is 37.6%.

It’s unlikely MSU will be able to create turnovers, but they do need to play pressure defense. Texas isn’t deep; only 7 players play 9 minutes or more per game. If we can force them to at least work hard for their shots, it might pay dividends in a close game down the stretch when our players have more energy left in the tank.

The Spartans will have to be particularly cognizant of Texas’ 3-point shooters. Their three “A’s” are shooting the 3 extremely well.

  • D.J. Augustin: 42.9%
  • A.J. Abrams: 41.5%
  • Connor Atchley: 63.3% (not bad for a guy who’s 6’9″)

(Burnt Orange Nation notes that Abrams has cooled off in Texas’ last several games.)

And MSU simply has to lock down the defensive boards. As well as Texas shoots the ball, they can’t be given second chances on the occassions when they do miss.

When MSU Has the Ball

Texas’ defensive resume isn’t nearly as overwhelming, but there aren’t a lot of glaring weaknesses, either. The one thing that jumps out is 3-point shooting. Their opponents have attempted 3-pointers on 40.6% of their FG attempts. That percentage ranks 313th in the nation (the implicit premise being that letting your opponents shoot 3-pointers is a bad thing). And they’ve made a decent percentage: 36.2%. This is presumably a function of the fact that the Longhorns have employed the 2-3 zone defense with some frequency.

Players like Morgan, Lucas, and Walton will need to, at minimum, step up and hit the 15- to 18-footer. It’d be great, of course, if they could sprinkle 2 or 3 made 3-pointers in, as well. And let’s hope Neitzel’s 3-point shot is in full working order.

MSU probably won’t prevail solely on the strength of the 3-point shot, though. The two other obvious options to beat the zone are (1) get Morgan and Suton into the middle of the 2-3 zone where they can pass over the defense and (2) push the ball up court whenever the opportunity presents itself so Texas can’t get into the zone. Option (2) has the added benefit of hopefully wearing down Texas’ limited playing rotation.

The Spartans Weblog Key to the Game

I tend to see life as a big probability distribution and am, therefore, loathe to pick one key to a game and the binary state of the world such a key implies. But I’ll go out on a limb here. I think they key for the men in Green may well be defensive rebounding. As argued above, we have to prevent second shot opportunities on the relatively rare occasions on which the Longhorns miss. Further, strong defensive rebounding can key some transition baskets.

Based on their personnel and their offensive rebounding performance to date, there’s no reason our Spartans can’t control the defensive glass. To date, though, they’ve been strictly average, ranking 158th in the country in defensive rebounding %. I suspect Coach Izzo may have mentioned something along these lines a couple times this week.

In closing: if the game is close down the stretch, I like MSU’s chances to win due to our superior depth. If Texas comes out knocking down the three and MSU doesn’t, though, it’ll be an uphill climb for the Spartans.

Bonus Outside Preview that Invokes Nostalgia for the Big Ten Wonk Era

The Artist Formerly Known as the Big Ten Wonk weighs in on the game from his new home. Forbodingly, he focuses on Texas’ propensity to not turn the ball over and MSU’s propensity to do the inverse. He also has some kind words for our Senior captain:

The shots in the Michigan State offense come from Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan, period. Neitzel should be appreciated for what he is: an outstanding college player. He will never replicate what he’s doing now “at the next level.” So what? Let’s appreciate what we see now: Neitzel is a true combo guard, one who sees the defense and can exploit it with either a make or an assist. Moreover, Neitzel is the one Texas-like player in Spartan green: he never turns the ball over. Ever.

Hear, hear.

(Note: Final line corrected from “Here, here.”  Props to Official Spartans Weblog Grammarian David K.)

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Thursday Night Links

Posted in basketball, links, msu on December 20, 2007 | 1 Comment »

Chris Allen is out for the Texas game: As Joe Rexrode notes, it would have been nice to have him back as Texas apparently plays a lot of zone.  On the other hand, he’d probably be pretty rusty.

Mr. Rexrode also has some scheduling morsels: MSU will play Texas the next three seasons.  Kansas will play at Breslin next year, and the Spartans will play in Orlando over Thanksgiving weekend.

Expect to see more zone defense in the Big Ten this season: Not only has Beilein brought his 1-3-1 to Michigan, the Columbus Dispatch’s “Hoops and Scoops” blog indicates Ohio State is playing zone defense exclusively this season.  Once the conference of the I-formation and man-to-man defense, the Big Ten is becoming the conference of the spread offense and the zone defense!

Purdue was upset by Wofford 69-66 last night (in the first round of the Las Vegas Classic, brought to you live from . . . West Lafayette!):  The Indy Star’s Purdue blog chalks this up to Wofford playing zone because Purdue can’t shoot consistently from the outside.  The Boilermakers made only 3 of 16 3-point attempts.

HoopRaker pontificates on college basketball and the Benjamins: He singles out Izzo as the one of the three big money coaches in the Big Ten (Matta and Tubby being the other two) who has clearly earned his immense paycheck.  My take: I share HoopRaker’s longing for a time when institutional integrity at least trumped the almighty dollar, but I think that ship has sailed.  Big time college sports simply generate too much revenue for university decision making not to be influenced heavily by financial considerations.  At some point, I fear the system is going to break down entirely.  You simply can’t have this much money pouring into university coffers while trying to stringently maintain amateurism for the players.  (Good news: It’ll be college football, not basketball, where the fault line in the system will open.)  This isn’t a moral judgment; it’s an economic one.  The system just isn’t sustainable.

 

Housekeeping: You’ve probably noticed I’ve modified the blog’s format and banner photo.  I think this is a sleaker, easier-to-read format.  And the text highlights are a nice Spartan green.  (It’s a WordPress template; I’m still far from being technologically-savvy enough to design my own blog format.)  Let me know if you notice any other improvements that could be made around here.

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San Jose State Game Recap (12/19/07)

Posted in basketball, game recap, msu on December 20, 2007 | 7 Comments »

The Spartans defeat the mini-Spartans in a rout: 85-45.  I had the chance to watch this one in person–and it was the kind of game you want to see your team play against a patsy.  MSU built a 15-point half time lead and didn’t let up–outscoring San Jose State by 25 in the second half.  MSU played with suffocating defensive intensity throughout and converted the defensive effort into points on the fast break.

As their stats indicated coming in, San Jose State didn’t bring much to the table offensively.  Justin Graham–he of the Pistol Pete-wannabe mop top–could create some if he got into the paint, but eventually the MSU defenders figured out he was going to go to the spin move most trips down the lane.  And San Jose State didn’t have the scorers to take advantage of Graham’s passing ability.  Eventually, San Jose State just lost the will to work on offense and started turning the ball over on what seemed like every other possession.

Izzo clearly wanted to use this game to build his team’s intensity going into the game against Texas on Saturday.  With about two and a half minutes left, San Jose State scored several times down the court to get their point total over the hump of being more than half of MSU’s total.  Izzo immediately called a timeout to get on his team about their lack of defensive intensity.

One minor gripe: There were three or four bad fouls committed by Spartan defenders in the backcourt.  I understand Izzo wants to pressure the ball to take advantage of our depth, but those sorts of fouls can hurt in a closer game when they allow an opponent to start shooting free throws earlier in the half.

OK, on to the box score.  (Notice how I went four full paragraphs before resorting to my usual analyze-the-box-score schtick!)

  • At 74 possessions, this was the highest-tempo game MSU has played to date.  This was largely a function of San Jose State’s turnovers (23, for a TO% of 31.1%), which led to 20 fast break points for MSU.  Justin Graham turned the ball over 8 times.
  • San Jose State couldn’t muster any offense, making only 1 of 11 3-point attempts (9.1%) and 17 of 49 2-point attempts (34.7%).  45 points in 74 possessions equates to a downright dismal 0.61 points per possession.
  • MSU pulled down 17 of 38 offensive rebounding opportunities (44.7%).  Only for this team, could that stat be described as “ho hum.”
  • Durrell Summers had a breakout game, scoring 16 points on a combination of fast break baskets and mid-range jumpers.  He did take 14 FG attempts to score those points; a few of his jump shot attempts were a bit forced.
  • Walton scored only 2 points on 1-6 shooting.  But he had 10 assists versus just one turnover and swiped the ball 4 times.
  • 14 points on just 9 FG attempts for Neitzel.  His shooting stroke looked like it was back to being Neitzelesque from my vantage point.
  • 16 quiet point from Morgan on 6-10 shooting.
  • 13 blocked shots for the Spartans–4 each for Naymick and Suton and 2 for Tom Herzog, who got himself 8 minutes on the floor.  Suton added 4 steals, too–quite the defensive menace.
  • And last, but not least: Marquise Gray recorded an assist!  His first of the season.  Anyone remember the play on which it occurred?

Alright, enough with the statistical superlatives.  Bring on those Longhorns.  6:30 Saturday night.  ESPN2.  Tickets are still available for those interested in a visit to the Palace of Auburn Hills.

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San Jose State Game Preview

Posted in basketball, game preview, msu on December 18, 2007 | 3 Comments »

It’s the Spartans versus the Spartans (sort of like Ditka vs. Mini-Ditka?). MSU hosts San Jose State Wednesday night at 8:00. The game is on the Big Ten Network. The LSJ says Chris Allen will miss the game due to the bone bruise in his foot and is “questionable” for Saturday’s game vs. Texas.

San Jose State comes in at 3-4. They’ve lost their last three games–to San Diego, Santa Clara, and Northern Arizona. They’re coming off a bad season last year, when they finished 5-25 (4-12 in the Western Athletic Conference).

San Jose State’s tempo-free profile says the following about them:

  • They’re not scoring the ball well–shooting 43.9% on 2-pointers and 34.0% on 3-pointers.
  • They don’t take many 3-pointers. Only 25.7% of their FGA are 3-pointers, 324th in the nation.
  • They haven’t given up many offensive rebounds. Their opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage is only 28.8%.
  • They don’t create a lot of turnovers. Their opponents have only turned it over on 19.4% of possessions.

As might be expected from the numbers above, not a lot jumps off the San Jose State individual stat sheet:

  • Their most frequent 3-point shooter is Junior forward Tim Pierce, who’s made 16 of 45 attempts (35.6%).
  • Freshman guard Justin Graham–here mentioned in the same breath as Pistol Pete (note the scribe’s prefacing of the article with “Not to get carried away . . .” before he proceeds to . . . get carried away)–is the team’s most efficient scorer. He’s shooting 51.0% on 2-pointers and 44.4% on 3-pointers (on just 9 attempts).
  • Senior point guard Jamon Hill is the only regular with a (barely) positive assist-to-turnover ratio: 15 to 14.

MSU last played San Jose State in 1989, beating them 88-61. Three-point ace Kirk Manns scored 21 points for MSU.

The Sagarin Ratings like MSU by 27 points in this one.

While we’re eyeballing the data at kenpom.com, a couple notes on MSU’s current tempo-free stats:

  • Still #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 47.0%, led by Suton’s 17.5% OR% (15th in the nation).
  • Offensive turnover percentage has dropped to a more run-of-the-mill: 22.2% (good to be moving toward run-of-the-mill in this case).
  • Our opponents are taking a lot more 3-pointers than we are: 39.5% of FGA vs. 22.7%.

MORNING UPDATE: We have ourselves a real live tempo-free stat sighting in the mainstream media!  Kudos to Mr. Dye.

Not only is Michigan State getting the offensive rebound on 47.6 percent of its missed shots, but the Spartans also have made more free throws (174) than their opponents have attempted (169).

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State of the Conference: PPWS

Posted in basketball, big ten, stats analysis on December 17, 2007 | 2 Comments »

With conference play approaching, let’s take a quick look at who’s scoring the ball efficiently across the Big Ten. We’ll use points per weighted shot (PPWS), which measures how many points a player is scoring compared to the number of shots he’s taking–both from the field and from the line.

PPWS = PTS / (FGA + FTA x .475)

In simpler terms, how many points is a player scoring compared to the number of possessions he’s using up by shooting the ball?

The data for all Big Ten players averaging at least 20 minutes per game is linked below. I’ve also included points per game and weighted shots per game (PTS/G divided by PPWS) for each player to give you a sense who’s scoring efficiently while taking a larger number of shots.

(I have the data in a Google spreadsheet, which I’m supposed to be able to embed in this page for you to see without clicking on a separate link. But the WordPress editor doesn’t seem to like the code. I’m just a caveman. I don’t understand your HTML code . . .)

Big Ten Individual PPWS (12/17/07)

A few comments:

  • Our two top scoring options continue to score efficiently. Morgan and Neitzel rank in the top third of the conference in PPWS.
  • The table somewhat understates MSU’s individual scoring efficiency. Gray (1.39) and Naymick (1.45) both barely miss the 20-minutes-per-game threshold (imposed by bbstate.com, the source for the data).
  • Kalin Lucas is among the least efficient scorers in the league: 56th out of the 59 players listed. He’s shown flashes of scoring ability but is still feeling things out in terms of his role offensively.
  • The Big Ten Wonk used to say, “PPWS is a more reliable tool for criticism than for praise.” In that case, the players to be criticized are Brian Butch, Shaun Pruitt, E’Twaun Moore, and Manny Harris. The four of them are all taking over 10 weighted shots per game, but rank in the bottom 10 in PPWS. Unusual to have two big men rank so low. Butch’s 2-20 (10.0%) on 3-point shots is hurting him. Pruitt is struggling at the line (52.6%). Moore is a freshman guard for Purdue; he’s making 3-pointers at a 40.0% clip but not shooing as well on 2-pointers (41.9%) and free throws (64.7%). Harris is making only 41.0% of his 2-point attempts and 31.6% of his 3-point attempts.
  • And I think we can throw the Wonk’s dictum out the door when it comes to the #2 player on the list: Eric Gordon. Despite leading the conference in weighted shots per game, he’s putting up a lofty PPWS of 1.43, on the strength of 50.9% 3-point shooting. That’s definitely worthy of praise.

More on that last point: Intuitively, the more shots a player takes in an average game, the harder the shots would become, which would tend to lower the player’s PPWS. Balancing that out to some degree is that better shooters will tend to take more shots.  I thought I’d graph PPWS vs. weighted shots per game to see how the two statistics tend to relate. Here are the results for Big Ten players this season:

ppws-graph.jpg

There does appear to be a slight downward slope to the data points, although the curve above seems to fit better. In any case, Gordon’s data is an outlier. He’s that dot way up in the upper right-hand corner. (Actually, if you remove Gordon’s data point, a downward-sloping straight line may fit the data better)

As far as data scatterplots go, that’s pretty scary stuff for non-Hoosiers. It will be interesting to see if Gordon can maintain that combination of shooting frequency and scoring efficiency when conference play begins. For the sake of MSU’s conference title chances, let’s hope he comes down to earth at least a little–especially since fellow Hoosier D.J. White currently ranks #6 on the conference PPWS list.

Note that Morgan’s dot is the first one to the left of Gordon’s above the 1.20 PPWS line.

The relationship between PPWS and shots per game is something I hope to explore more as the season progresses.

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